Hurricane Forecasting

[Lifted Up]

One thing I have not really seen knocked about the government regarding the historic hurricane barrage this year...and rightly IMHO...was the performance of the forecasting from the tropical Prediction center/National Hurricane Center. Other than the fine tuning in the 10 to 30 or so mile range, they pretty much had the major storms tabbed several days ahead.

As a relative oldie (relative??!!), I remember back in the 60s when hurricanes appeared in the southern Gulf of Mexico, and even more so in the Carribean, how all of the Gulf Coast was put on alert until the storm was fairly close and its path obvious. Even in those cases, Hurricane warnings and watches were often issued for much wider areas than they are today, for possible last minute major changes in direction.

In contrast, they had Katrina very well pegged to move across the Florda straits and into the Gulf, then make its northward curve, from the time it started. After a day of projecting the storm into the western Florida panhandle, the forecast was slightly adjusted to target the area just east of and very close to new Orleans, and this forecast was on the button. A mass evacuation of New Orleans was able to be planned several days ahead of time. The handling of [/i]that is beyond the scope of my post, but can anyone imagine the screaming that would have been going on had New orleans been evacuated and Katrina had hit, say, the south texas Coast. While the cost and inconvenience of this evacuation pale compared to the cost and damage done by this historic event, I guarantee that had nothing happened, there would have been a lot of screaming and finger pointing. Thirty ot forty years ago this could not have been done with such advance notice.

Likewise Rita, from its beginning, was forecast accurately to move southwest into the Gulf of Mexico, then curve northwest to hit the north texas or Western Louisiana coast. And Wilma, from the start, was forecast to hit Yucatan, weaken briefly, then move north and northeast, strengthen again over the Gulf, and hit south Florida. This is exactly what it did.

I guess many consider this a routine thing...like, we pay our taxes, they had

better get it right. But 40 years ago, the resources were just not there...in the form of satellites, computer models, knowledge of hurricanes, and several other factors, to do more than put the whole region on alert. And obviously it was impractical to evacuate Galveston, New orleans, Mobile, Tampa, and Miami at one lick just because it was uncertain which of these areas, if any, a hurricane would hit.