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Tom Strange
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I missed that show, StrangeOne-- I dont think I get the right channel for that, but I would have been interested--Ya got us any highlights we should know about--lowlights, middle lights? Those SABR guys have started to intrigue me the last 3 or 4 years.....

They're starting to wear that silly 'curse' like a badge of honour....
Gees I've been there and its tough thing to shake-It will be an earthshatteringly great day when they finally do overcome it all, and win it....I just hope it is before the next appearance of Halleys
it sure does seem like those two teams go neck and neck every year.

I think its a half game right now----last year on this date it was......a half game---This is 4 years running by my count that theyve been really tight

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I've got the show on Tivo... if I can figure out a way to save it to disc I will and I'll let you guys know... it really explains a lot of the thories and how the A's use it and how your BoSox won the series that year by practicing it...

The main theory it all winds down to is that an out is a very valuable thing... but it makes a lot of sense after they've explained it.

Edited by Tom Strange
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yea if you figure out how to discafy it let me know, I would like to see it.

I've (tried to anyway) read some of the Bill James stuff and to me it definitely makes sense, and I know that it is big in the Red Sox success of the last few years. I know that they keep a small army of pocket protectored never played ball type uber stat geeks on the payroll as well.

They certainly seem to know what they are talking about, although it can be as indecipherable to the average Joe like me as some sort of high calculations on nuclear fusion. It seems to work on the field though, which is all i care about

Edited by mstar1
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Thanks--I hope so---every week it seems like someone comes up with some new stat that Ive never even heard of before, never mind how they arrived at it, and I can get sort of lost when someone is telling me that So and so has a GRPIZ of .039, while Thus and such has one of .054 so should be starting even though his Zigplot rating is minus 12---or some such thing.

If you can figure it out-I'll look forward to it!

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According to James, over a season, the simple version(which always seems to work) to winning looks something like this:

43c198866d56f1677288399f3908934e.png

--------We got a beauty at Fenway tonight-- a combined one hitter in a 1-0 Win, Jon Lester, the rookie pitched a great game just when we needed it

HERE"S a big long pdf file on the math of winning percentages and how the derive it, that I can't make it through, if any of you are interested

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You guys go right ahead...lemme know what you come up with...

Its 13 pages of calculations saying what you said--if'n you scores more runs n give up less-yous wins more games.....

Did you see 94 year old Buck O'Neill playing in a minor league All Star game yesterday?

(Story Link) Great sight to see---I hope they put him in the Hall while he is still here with us.

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Damn-forgot it was an afternoon game today, and I come home and Sox won again 1-0, for the first consecutive 1-0 victories at Fenway since 1916.

I suppose its something they ought to do every 90 years or so....

Im likin this pitchin' and defense thang- I'll take it but

I hope that the offense gets going sometime soon

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Buck O'Neill belongs in the Hall of Fame while he's still alive.

A better ambassador for baseball cannot be found. I just watched the Ken Burns baseball documentaries again, and noone speaks as eloquently and passionately as Buck O'Neill.

He tells of a time when Sachel Paige pitched against Josh Gibson that is almost worth the Hall by itself.

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Damn-forgot it was an afternoon game today, and I come home and Sox won again 1-0, for the first consecutive 1-0 victories at Fenway since 1916.

I suppose its something they ought to do every 90 years or so....

Im likin this pitchin' and defense thang- I'll take it but

I hope that the offense gets going sometime soon

well it's an afternoon game today as well... and it won't be 1-0!

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You watching Tommy Strange?

6-4 in the 8th, I just got in--- apparently a gutty performance by Schilling

Ortiz sat today, saying he has been tired since the HR derby. If I get time Im gonna look up what Derby guys have historically done in the 2nd half-we had a few examples a few pages back- I know DO has been cold since the AllStar break, maybe they should abolish the darn thing

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yeah... I was watching till I fell asleep (I was up most of the night entertaining a kidney stone)... I see that's how the score ended up...

oh well... DeRosa's day in the field... chit happens...

I was surprised we got to Schilling a little bit...

On your research I'll give you one shining example: Hank Blalock.

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Gees good luck with the kidney stone--thats about the worse pain I have ever experienced--I hope that you pass it soon --if you havent already---good luck

FWIW-you got me rereading Moneyball after The Science of Baseball talk last week--Its a good read.

Did y'all hear about the Shea Hillenbrand thing?-it looks like the pressure is getting to some teams

Toronto Implodes

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Oh man, kidney stones! Pass it quick, Tom.

The Dodgers hired the second in command from the Oakland A's a couple years back, who was a moneyball devotee , right from the source.

Paul De Podesta.

He knew every fact and figure in the book.

He also didn't know squat.

He dismantled an up and coming Dodger team, and put together one of the worst teams in major league history, all based on moneyball.

His favorite player was He Sop Choi.

He's the Padres problem now.

I recognize some value in moneyball. I read the book and all.

Give me a gm who can size up a players character and worth anyday.

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Give me a gm who can size up a players character and worth anyday

Well thats the whole darn trick isnt it?

But then It comes down to a definition of worth and character, and how you can get to those. Everyone seems to have different opinions and different observations. I'd probably take a baseball guy over someone like DePodesta who had none in his background, but I dont see anything wrong with a combination of the two styles working together. Good GM's intrigue me, good ones seem to combine an incredibly sharp and perceptive mental focus with good baseball and human instincts--without one overriding the other---they are a rare breed .

FWIW Hee Sop is hitting about .200 in AAA right now I think--he's been quiet for awhile down there

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Did y'all hear about the Shea Hillenbrand thing?-it looks like the pressure is getting to some teams

Tom Grieve (he's one of our announcers-and good BTW) was talking about it the other day, and it was getting a mention in the newspaper here today... "Rangers thinking"... his sure would be a nice (steady, productive) bat to add to this lineup but it'd probably be at DH, which it looks like he doesn't like... you never know who's telling the truth or if the player would act differently... but from the story you linked to it sounds like Zaunie has a problem with team mates attitudes while Shane thinks its the manager that's causing that... we'll see...

We've got Adam Eaton scheduled to be coming back which we're all hoping is just like "adding pitching" so that we can go after a bat...

Oh man, kidney stones! Pass it quick, Tom.

I guess it's either passed or settled back down... should be good to go for golf tomorrow... it's only pain and I'm so used to much worse when my back goes out that I can get through it... it's not fun, but I can get through it... you just never realize how much it drains you until it takes you two days to recover...

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Well thats the whole darn trick isnt it?

I'd probably take a baseball guy over someone like DePodesta who had none in his background, but I dont see anything wrong with a combination of the two styles working together.

That would make him one and one then wouldn't it? He did a pretty good job in Oakland for his first time around... there are other factors involved in the mix that might have been present in Oakland that weren't there in LA, how long was he in LA? ...takes a little time to develop, takes a manager that manages in sync with 'the plan' (see BoSox 2004), it takes ownership completely sold on the idea...

even with all of that, sometimes things work, sometimes they don't... it's only a "theory"...

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The argument could be made that De Podesta didn't have enough time in LA.

That argument won't be made by me though.

He was all computer readouts, and mathematical equations.

He screwed up the Dodgers royally.

Again, I'm not against alot of the 'moneyball' theories. No computer that I've seen can measure heart, compatibility, desire, and any number of 'intangibles'. A combination of both would be lovely and maybe rare as a Jeff Weaver complete game.

If Ortiz messed up his stroke at home run derby, Brad Penny may have done the same to his arm. He got rocked in his first start after airing it out for 2 innings at the all star game. No one was there to remind him he sat out most of last year on the dl. He sure looked impressive throwing 95 plus heat for 2 innings though.

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If Ortiz messed up his stroke at home run derby, Brad Penny may have done the same to his arm. He got rocked in his first start after airing it out for 2 innings at the all star game. No one was there to remind him he sat out most of last year on the dl. He sure looked impressive throwing 95 plus heat for 2 innings though.
well yea, I wonder about these things, especially the intense hype that goes into it, these guys being up on the mainstage with 10's of millions of viewers and the pressure to perform like a superman and what it does, and whether it is actually a good thing or not. Someone asked me a few pages back if I voted for Varitek and the answer was NO, even though it is a fun event for the players I would rather see him get 3 days off after a tough first half. I suppose that there is no way of measuring it, and in away it is good for baseball, but it seems to take too much of a toll. Especially now where "This one counts", I got news for them --all the other games count too, and I have hard time potentially sacrificing effectiveness in the 2nd half for an exhibition......
"Rangers thinking"... his sure would be a nice (steady, productive) bat to add to this lineup but it'd probably be at DH, which it looks like he doesn't like.

Its hard to tell, being outside the clubhouse, I liked his bat and his glove when he was here, but when he was traded in '03 stories started to come out and there were a lot of words spoken that werent pretty,(mostly coming from him)

I dont know if it was coincidence or not but it was just after he left in '03 that the team started to gell , play better as a team and eventually----well you know what happened.

I have no idea about his time in AZ.

I dont know, its one of those hard to read intangibles that Hiway was just talking about that maybe is overblown but maybe it is real too, He's got a reasonably good batand could be about an 85RBI/ a year guy, but hes developing a track record for contraversy too that could undo whatever talent he has-- Tough call.

Edited by mstar1
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