Geo Aar, I'd agree except for one thing: every full moon sightings of Amazing Sea Monkeys! increase. The stories are usually buried in the papers or ignored.
I was standing all alone against the world outside. You were searching for a place to hide....
Now I've found you, there's no more emptiness inside. When we're hungry love will keep us alive.
Geo., I don't know how many times I've noticed that people were acting particularly goofy/irritable and have said, "Hmmm, must be a full moon." Then voila, that night I see it in the sky.
I sure as heck don't plan my life around it. In fact, I seldom know when there's going to be one. Now my mom's father did. He planted stuff in his garden according to the phases of the moon.
Did you know that the tides are influenced by the moon? Also that farmers plant and harvest crops according to the lunar cycles? Yes, the moon does influence the earth and hence the earth's people. A look at the creation story in Genesis hints at the moon's importance. The book of Enoch, which I have read and consider to be godly inspired, has more on the moon.
For details on this subject you could do a google internet search. Here is one such web site:
"The moon is full, or appears to be so (how many of us actually check each month as to what day the actual full moon is?) for several days. You could stretch it just a bit and still sorta kinda call it a "full" moon for maybe as much as a week. That's 1/4 of the time!"
I actually DO check to see which day the full moon appears on, cause we got one cantankerous old guy in a wheel-chair who does his best to "run us over" every day (at the house I work at). Full moon affects him too, and he is more "agile" and "alert" then.
These are things we (as staff) NEED TO KNOW. :D--> :D--> :D-->, so we do check the exact date.
quote:16Let no man therefore judge you in meat, or in drink, or in respect of an holyday, or of the new moon, or of the sabbath days: 17Which are a shadow of things to come; but the body is of Christ.
The new moon is like a sabbath because demons have less freedom.
(There is one church I found that was called the New Moon Holiness Church.)
I always find it is easier to give God's love and kindness on the new moon.
I had a big project due on the full moon, and as a response to prayer there was a big heavy cloud that covered the full moon, I found it to be a protective cover that mitigated the effect of the full moon.
Another interesting thing about the full moon thread I mentioned above, is that it was from one year ago -- and it was, as this thread, begun about the time of the first full moon before passover. (3/5/04, and 3/16/03)
The feelings and the "I just know" type of evidence given here is precisely the reason that in REAL science, a great deal of energy is expended in the design of an experiment.
The experimenter wants to isolate his preconceptions, biases, and unconscious prejudices from contaminating the results.
That is why so much effort is spent to "blind" the one performing the experiment from the actual conduct of it. It's just too easy to skew the results if there's a "I just knew it!" conclusion lurking about in one's head.
This is EXACTLY what's been presented as proof here, confirmation bias, selective thinking, and ad hoc hypothesis. But then, such is the nature of "belief"...
"The feelings and the "I just know" type of evidence given here is precisely the reason that in REAL science, a great deal of energy is expended in the design of an experiment."
although I have not seen the Passion movie---(bear with me--this is about the moon) my neighbor who lived in the Sudan for many years has...and her and her husband thought the scene where they focused on the full moon in the movie (probably to indicate the accuracy of the Passover) would have been very problematic for Muslims due to the fact they would see at as looking to "the spirit of the moon" at least in the Sudan---and it would have been more offensive had it been crescent....but then it would not have been Pasover......
Now George, you know that I very seldom question anything you say...but I just can't explain why whenever there is a full moon...I wake up in the middle of the night and find myself naked, doing the "groucho walk" in the front yard.
"I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy"
George talked about gravity, others talked about magnetic fields, but there's something most folks don't take into account--nothing about the Moon is changing during the month except its position. What that means is that the Moon will be in the same place overhead at least once every day. That time shifts by about 50 minutes a day, but all that means is that the same "influence" the Moon has on you at midnight on the day it becomes full is the same influence that the one-day-past-full Moon will have on you tomorrow night at 12:50am, and the same as the previous night's Moon did at 11:10pm. Same mass, same general distance, same gravity. If it's some sort of syzygy influence, (i.e., the relation between earth, moon, sun) then the true full-moon straight-line effect would last less than an hour at the precise instant of fullness, and only over that particular spot on the earth where the moon would be on the meridian.
So, you can pretty much rule out any gravitic or orbital influence altogether.
Most people also don't consider that all sorts of things (massive objects, motors, light sources) cause us to experience greater and more frequent fluctuations in gravity, magnetism, light, heat, etc. than the moon possibly could.
So I posted this once before and I'll post it again. First I'll post the relevant information
and then explain what it means afterwards.
Note: Please forgive the misspellings as they
certanly don't appear in the book. I'm typing this stuff in so please be patient. Also I've
omitted listing the columns of data since I
dont' have the time or energy to write all that
in and I have tried to make the calculational
symbols clear. If you doubt any of this you are
free to look up the book in question and read it
for yourself.
Taken from pages 8-9 of "An Introduction To Mathematical Statistics and Its Applications" by Richard J. Larsen (Vanderbilt University) and Morris L. Marx (University of Oklahoma) 1981 Prentice-Hall Ic, Englewood Cliffs N.J. 07632 ISBN 0-13-487744-6
Begin Quote from text
-----------------------------------------
Case Study 1.3
In folklore , the full moon is often portrayed as something sinister, a kind of evil force possessing the power to control our behavior. Over the centuries, many prominent writers and philosophers have shared this belief. Milton, in "Paradise Lost" refers to:
"Demoniac Frenzy, moping melancholy And moon-struck madness".
And Othello, after the murder of Desdemona, laments:
"Is is the very error of the moon, She comes more near the earth than she was wont and she makes men mad"
On a more scholarly level , sir William Blackstone, the reknowned 18th century English barrister, defined a "lunatic" as "one who hath...
lost the use of his reason and who hath lucid
intervals, sometimes enjoying his senses and sometimes not, and that frequently depending
upon changes of the moon"
The possibility of the lunar phases' influencing
human affairs is a theory not without supporters
among the scientific community. Studies by
reputable medical researchers have attempted to
linke the "Transylvania Effect", as it has come
to be known , with higher suicide rates, pyromania, and even epilepsy. In this example,
we look at still another context in which this phenomenon might be expected to occur. Table 1.4
shows the admission rates to the energency room
of a Virginia mental health clinic before , during, and after full moons from august 1971 to July 1972. Notice that for this particualr set of data, the average admission rate is higher during the full moon than during the rest of the month.
Averages of the table are presented here:
Before Full Moon During Full Moon After FM
---------------- ---------------- ---------
10.9 13.3 11.4
For reasons discussed in Chapter 6 , hypothesis
tests are always set up so that what is being tested is the absence or negation of any
differences from population to population.
Following that principle here leads us to state
the hypothesis as
H: On the average, there is no difference in mental-hospital admission rates before, during, and after the full moon.
the decision to reject H will be made only if it
can be demonstrated that averages as different
as 10.9, 13.2, and 11.4 are extremely unlikely
to arise by chance alone. an analysis done
in chapter 12 suggests that these averages are
considerably different, implying that the
data could be used as evidence in support of
the existence of a transylvania effect.
(From Chapter 12 pages 497-499):
Case study 1.3 described an investigation designed to "measure" te so-called transylvania effect. .... An a priori subhypothesis is clearly suggested by the circumstances of the problem - specifically , it would make sense to test whether the admission rate during the full moon
is different than the average of the rates for
"before" and "After". What needs to be considered, then is H(0): mean 2 = (mean 1 + mean 3)/2. following the procedure outlined in 11.4 the contrast asscoiated with H'(0) is
"Some experiments do show that on days with a full moon there is more abnormal behavior. However, many of these studies have been criticized because they were not performed properly. For example, some of these experiments:
tested only a few people over a short period of time.
did not analyze the data with proper statistical tests.
did not take into account the day of the week on which the full moon occurred
did not take into account whether the full moon occurred on a holiday or a weekend"
The statistical analysis concludes that the elevated admission numbers were NOT by chance. Thats the first job of any decent statistician - to determine if the data have emerged at random/ by chance.
After that subsequent work can be performed to look at why its not by chance. The case study I presented was the first in a series of
many studies that investigated other variables
associated with the "transyvania effect".
For the sake of brevity I presented the first
study.
The analysis further suggests that one can not dismiss the moon as a variable relative to admission rates. Once again - It does not mean say the moon is the *cause* - but that
it cannot be eliminated as a variable or a covariable. Sure its quite likely that the moon
combined with people's belief that the moon
causes such situatisons is part of the equation but even still you can't rule out the moon
as variable not statistically anyway.
Regarding "proper statistical tests". The numbers and computations are sound as was the
approach. I used this textbook as part of a graduate program on optimization and statistical modelling. I employ many of the methods in that book as part of my work today.
The book is used at MIT, Cal Tech, and Ga Tech.
Lastly I am very familiar with the PubMed papers
you are referincing. thats the beauty of science. They investigate different sets of data (poisonings, suicides, arrests). In this case I presented it was admission rates to a mental hospital in Virginia. You can't take the conclusions from one study and apply them to another. This is statistically unsound and
your publication will be shot down as will
your grant money.
So, for example, there may in fact be no relationship whatsoever with lunar phases and nursing home agitiation but this does not provide statistical license to extend this to other sets of data.
(One notes that aggravated assualts in a 5 year period did occur more often around the full moon).
[This message was edited by diazbro on March 09, 2004 at 11:08.]
[This message was edited by diazbro on March 09, 2004 at 11:13.]
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socks
excie,
:)--> We be TAPPED IN! Nice song, hey?
Geo Aar, I'd agree except for one thing: every full moon sightings of Amazing Sea Monkeys! increase. The stories are usually buried in the papers or ignored.
I was standing all alone against the world outside. You were searching for a place to hide....
Now I've found you, there's no more emptiness inside. When we're hungry love will keep us alive.
The Eagles
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ex10
Well, whether or not the full moon affects behavior, I don't know. But I do think it's pretty fascinating that so many think that it does.
Could it possibly be the "Law of Believing" at work???
:D--> (Really, I'm just kidding, lest anyone take me seriously.)
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Trefor Heywood
I used to be a teenage werewolf
But I'm all right naaaawwwooooo!
:D-->
Trefor Heywood
"Cymru Am Byth!"
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excathedra
man socks i luv ya
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Linda Z
Geo., I don't know how many times I've noticed that people were acting particularly goofy/irritable and have said, "Hmmm, must be a full moon." Then voila, that night I see it in the sky.
I sure as heck don't plan my life around it. In fact, I seldom know when there's going to be one. Now my mom's father did. He planted stuff in his garden according to the phases of the moon.
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nknative
I am a customer service rep and believe me all of the grumpy people come out in full force during a full moon.
I have been in retail for most of my life and we can always tell when the moon is full.
nknative
loving life and trying to help others love it too
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Mark Sanguinetti
Ex:
Did you know that the tides are influenced by the moon? Also that farmers plant and harvest crops according to the lunar cycles? Yes, the moon does influence the earth and hence the earth's people. A look at the creation story in Genesis hints at the moon's importance. The book of Enoch, which I have read and consider to be godly inspired, has more on the moon.
For details on this subject you could do a google internet search. Here is one such web site:
http://www.farmersalmanac.com/astronomy/astronomy.html
[This message was edited by Mark Sanguinetti on March 06, 2004 at 22:38.]
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excathedra
mark, i know you're talking to the other ex (my dear sis)
i think the moon is so enchanting (sp?) and mysterious and lovely
have also seen crazy things happen around here at full moon times
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Kit Sober
There was another full moon discussion which is now in Archives: Cafe Starry-eyed discussions
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dmiller
Geo -- you said ----------
"The moon is full, or appears to be so (how many of us actually check each month as to what day the actual full moon is?) for several days. You could stretch it just a bit and still sorta kinda call it a "full" moon for maybe as much as a week. That's 1/4 of the time!"
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I actually DO check to see which day the full moon appears on, cause we got one cantankerous old guy in a wheel-chair who does his best to "run us over" every day (at the house I work at). Full moon affects him too, and he is more "agile" and "alert" then.
These are things we (as staff) NEED TO KNOW.
:D--> 
:D--> 
:D-->, so we do check the exact date. 
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Kit Sober
from Colossians 2:
The new moon is like a sabbath because demons have less freedom.(There is one church I found that was called the New Moon Holiness Church.)
I always find it is easier to give God's love and kindness on the new moon.
I had a big project due on the full moon, and as a response to prayer there was a big heavy cloud that covered the full moon, I found it to be a protective cover that mitigated the effect of the full moon.
Another interesting thing about the full moon thread I mentioned above, is that it was from one year ago -- and it was, as this thread, begun about the time of the first full moon before passover. (3/5/04, and 3/16/03)
a nice moon phase calendar is found here: www.stardate.org
A
[This message was edited by Kit Sober on March 07, 2004 at 7:18.]
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George Aar
The feelings and the "I just know" type of evidence given here is precisely the reason that in REAL science, a great deal of energy is expended in the design of an experiment.
The experimenter wants to isolate his preconceptions, biases, and unconscious prejudices from contaminating the results.
That is why so much effort is spent to "blind" the one performing the experiment from the actual conduct of it. It's just too easy to skew the results if there's a "I just knew it!" conclusion lurking about in one's head.
Take a look at the definition for "confirmation bias" from the skepdic website - http://skepdic.com/confirmbias.html
This is EXACTLY what's been presented as proof here, confirmation bias, selective thinking, and ad hoc hypothesis. But then, such is the nature of "belief"...
geo.
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dmiller
"The feelings and the "I just know" type of evidence given here is precisely the reason that in REAL science, a great deal of energy is expended in the design of an experiment."
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And I bet the energy level rises dramatically during a Full Moon!
:D--> 
:D-->
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washingtonweather
I do know this too---
although I have not seen the Passion movie---(bear with me--this is about the moon) my neighbor who lived in the Sudan for many years has...and her and her husband thought the scene where they focused on the full moon in the movie (probably to indicate the accuracy of the Passover) would have been very problematic for Muslims due to the fact they would see at as looking to "the spirit of the moon" at least in the Sudan---and it would have been more offensive had it been crescent....but then it would not have been Pasover......
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Groucho
Now George, you know that I very seldom question anything you say...but I just can't explain why whenever there is a full moon...I wake up in the middle of the night and find myself naked, doing the "groucho walk" in the front yard.
"I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy"
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George Aar
Ah yes, the naked "groucho walk".
That's one of life's beautiful mysteries.
(I don't think we were meant to understand)...
geo.
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Zixar
George talked about gravity, others talked about magnetic fields, but there's something most folks don't take into account--nothing about the Moon is changing during the month except its position. What that means is that the Moon will be in the same place overhead at least once every day. That time shifts by about 50 minutes a day, but all that means is that the same "influence" the Moon has on you at midnight on the day it becomes full is the same influence that the one-day-past-full Moon will have on you tomorrow night at 12:50am, and the same as the previous night's Moon did at 11:10pm. Same mass, same general distance, same gravity. If it's some sort of syzygy influence, (i.e., the relation between earth, moon, sun) then the true full-moon straight-line effect would last less than an hour at the precise instant of fullness, and only over that particular spot on the earth where the moon would be on the meridian.
So, you can pretty much rule out any gravitic or orbital influence altogether.
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oldiesman
If you haven't heard the Spongmonkey's opinion on this topic, I think it's worth reviewing:
We Like The Moon
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LG
Most people also don't consider that all sorts of things (massive objects, motors, light sources) cause us to experience greater and more frequent fluctuations in gravity, magnetism, light, heat, etc. than the moon possibly could.
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diazbro
So I posted this once before and I'll post it again. First I'll post the relevant information
and then explain what it means afterwards.
Note: Please forgive the misspellings as they
certanly don't appear in the book. I'm typing this stuff in so please be patient. Also I've
omitted listing the columns of data since I
dont' have the time or energy to write all that
in and I have tried to make the calculational
symbols clear. If you doubt any of this you are
free to look up the book in question and read it
for yourself.
Taken from pages 8-9 of "An Introduction To Mathematical Statistics and Its Applications" by Richard J. Larsen (Vanderbilt University) and Morris L. Marx (University of Oklahoma) 1981 Prentice-Hall Ic, Englewood Cliffs N.J. 07632 ISBN 0-13-487744-6
Begin Quote from text
-----------------------------------------
Case Study 1.3
In folklore , the full moon is often portrayed as something sinister, a kind of evil force possessing the power to control our behavior. Over the centuries, many prominent writers and philosophers have shared this belief. Milton, in "Paradise Lost" refers to:
"Demoniac Frenzy, moping melancholy And moon-struck madness".
And Othello, after the murder of Desdemona, laments:
"Is is the very error of the moon, She comes more near the earth than she was wont and she makes men mad"
On a more scholarly level , sir William Blackstone, the reknowned 18th century English barrister, defined a "lunatic" as "one who hath...
lost the use of his reason and who hath lucid
intervals, sometimes enjoying his senses and sometimes not, and that frequently depending
upon changes of the moon"
The possibility of the lunar phases' influencing
human affairs is a theory not without supporters
among the scientific community. Studies by
reputable medical researchers have attempted to
linke the "Transylvania Effect", as it has come
to be known , with higher suicide rates, pyromania, and even epilepsy. In this example,
we look at still another context in which this phenomenon might be expected to occur. Table 1.4
shows the admission rates to the energency room
of a Virginia mental health clinic before , during, and after full moons from august 1971 to July 1972. Notice that for this particualr set of data, the average admission rate is higher during the full moon than during the rest of the month.
Averages of the table are presented here:
Before Full Moon During Full Moon After FM
---------------- ---------------- ---------
10.9 13.3 11.4
For reasons discussed in Chapter 6 , hypothesis
tests are always set up so that what is being tested is the absence or negation of any
differences from population to population.
Following that principle here leads us to state
the hypothesis as
H: On the average, there is no difference in mental-hospital admission rates before, during, and after the full moon.
the decision to reject H will be made only if it
can be demonstrated that averages as different
as 10.9, 13.2, and 11.4 are extremely unlikely
to arise by chance alone. an analysis done
in chapter 12 suggests that these averages are
considerably different, implying that the
data could be used as evidence in support of
the existence of a transylvania effect.
(From Chapter 12 pages 497-499):
Case study 1.3 described an investigation designed to "measure" te so-called transylvania effect. .... An a priori subhypothesis is clearly suggested by the circumstances of the problem - specifically , it would make sense to test whether the admission rate during the full moon
is different than the average of the rates for
"before" and "After". What needs to be considered, then is H(0): mean 2 = (mean 1 + mean 3)/2. following the procedure outlined in 11.4 the contrast asscoiated with H'(0) is
C = -0.5(mean 1) + mean 2 - 0.5(mean 3)
while its estimate is
C = -0.5(10.92) +1(13.3) - 0.5(11.46) = 2.11
From definition 11.4 the sum of squares
associated with C is 35.62. dividing SS©
by the mean square for error gives an F ratio
with 1 and 22 degrees of freedom:
(35.61)/1 / 132.08/22 = 5.93
But, for the 0.05 level F(0.95,1,22) = 4.30. Thus the contrary to our acceptance of H(0)
we would REJECT H'(0) and conclude that the
admission rate IS significantly higher during a full moon than it is for the rest of the month.
--------------END QUOTE FROM BOOK----------
Okay so the take-a-way from this is that
from the admission data collected ,one can NOT
claim that the elevated number of admissions
during the full moon was by chance. The statistical tests suggest that you cannot
eliminate the moon as a possible variable.
Now this does NOT ( I repeat ) does NOT
say that the moon is causing the escalated
admission rates just that it cannot be excluded
as a possible cause/variable. This analysis does not offer a possible cause - thats not the
job of statisticians. The analysis is concerned with determing if these data emerged by chance or not. In this case the elevated admission
numbers were NOT by chance.
So if your local ER worker tells you that they
get more patients during a full moon then they most likely aren't exagerrating.
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ex10
Thanks diaz
I'm really happy to know that my nurse/doctor/shrink/pastor friends (and mom) are not totally off their nut.
:D-->
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George Aar
Diazbro,
One's got to wonder about the validity of this one study when compared to the numerous others that found no such link:
http://faculty.washington.edu/chudler/moon.html
A pertinent quote from that link:
"Some experiments do show that on days with a full moon there is more abnormal behavior. However, many of these studies have been criticized because they were not performed properly. For example, some of these experiments:
tested only a few people over a short period of time.
did not analyze the data with proper statistical tests.
did not take into account the day of the week on which the full moon occurred
did not take into account whether the full moon occurred on a holiday or a weekend"
geo.
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diazbro
George,
Reread the conclusions section. No where
did it say that the moon *caused* the elevated
admission rates.
The statistical analysis concludes that the elevated admission numbers were NOT by chance. Thats the first job of any decent statistician - to determine if the data have emerged at random/ by chance.
After that subsequent work can be performed to look at why its not by chance. The case study I presented was the first in a series of
many studies that investigated other variables
associated with the "transyvania effect".
For the sake of brevity I presented the first
study.
The analysis further suggests that one can not dismiss the moon as a variable relative to admission rates. Once again - It does not mean say the moon is the *cause* - but that
it cannot be eliminated as a variable or a covariable. Sure its quite likely that the moon
combined with people's belief that the moon
causes such situatisons is part of the equation but even still you can't rule out the moon
as variable not statistically anyway.
Regarding "proper statistical tests". The numbers and computations are sound as was the
approach. I used this textbook as part of a graduate program on optimization and statistical modelling. I employ many of the methods in that book as part of my work today.
The book is used at MIT, Cal Tech, and Ga Tech.
Lastly I am very familiar with the PubMed papers
you are referincing. thats the beauty of science. They investigate different sets of data (poisonings, suicides, arrests). In this case I presented it was admission rates to a mental hospital in Virginia. You can't take the conclusions from one study and apply them to another. This is statistically unsound and
your publication will be shot down as will
your grant money.
So, for example, there may in fact be no relationship whatsoever with lunar phases and nursing home agitiation but this does not provide statistical license to extend this to other sets of data.
(One notes that aggravated assualts in a 5 year period did occur more often around the full moon).
[This message was edited by diazbro on March 09, 2004 at 11:08.]
[This message was edited by diazbro on March 09, 2004 at 11:13.]
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Zixar
I thought we'd covered the difference between correlation and causality...?
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