Apparently, the disturbance off Africa dissipated. The one currently off Louisiana is not expected to strengthen, but should bring some much-needed rain to Texas.
So at this point it looks like I'm on the outskirts of this storm. It won't be great for us, but it could be a whole lot worse. I'm on the southeast coast of Florida, and this storm (Hermine? Ian?) Is headeded up the west coast of the state. That means a lot of wind and rain, but hurricane conditions? Ok, maybe...
The current map (Wed. 11 AM EDT) indicates that Ian will go from a major hurricane to a tropical storm by early Thursday. Good news, such as it is.
George
Not very good news. It means the storm sits still for hours and hours, weakening, yes, but starting as a major hurricane and pounding away until it's out of energy. It would be one thing if it moved, like Wilma did, bang-pow-out-of-town. But this one is just going to sit there for hours upon hours until it's out of steam. That's no relief to anyone except those who WOULD be in its path if it kept moving forward (Georgia and South Carolina are projected to get a Tropical Storm out of this).
I remember an old rule of thumb that inches of rainfall is approximately 60 divided by the translational (not rotational) speed of the storm. So, if it moves 5 mph, you get about a foot of rain. The map says that the speed is 9 mph, so one might estimate 7 inches of rain. That assumes, of course, that the storm doesn't slow down. Assuming Florida is 160 mi wide at that point, and the storm travels NE, its path across land will be about 224 miles. The storm map estimates that the storm will be over land for about 30 hours, so that would give an average of 7.5 mph, or 8 inches of rain. It will be interesting to see how well the rule of thumb predicts actual rainfall.
This estimate, of course, does not predict other hazards of the storm, such as wind damage and storm surge.
I was watching the news the other night – it was unreal – the reporter is standing just inside a parking garage, and it looks like he’s in a wind tunnel!
And now I’m hearing Ian can intensify again
I was watching the news the other night – it was unreal – the reporter is standing just inside a parking garage, and it looks like he’s in a wind tunnel!
And now I’m hearing Ian can intensify again
Apparently, it's expected to be a (minor, if that means anything) hurricane before it hits the Carolina coast.
When a storm is in the Gulf, one refers to a "dirty" side (north and east of the eye) and the "dry" side (west), because of the counter-clockwise rotation of the winds. That doesn't apply to an Atlantic storm, though, because now the counter-clockwise flow brings in Atlantic water. Florida gets pounded, no matter which side of the peninsula the storm resides.
We're lucky to be okay here, no property damage, no flooding in our neighborhood and we have power. Beyond grateful, but it's totally shocking and sad to see what's happened in our state.
Reminds me of Harvey, a few years ago. I never lost power, gas, water, phone or internet (though satellite TV was spotty). Flood waters came halfway up my driveway, then receded. Lots of people had it a LOT worse. Be thankful for your situation, and do what you can to help the less blessed. No "survivor guilt," though. That doesn't help anyone.
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Raf
Great idea, George. We can all post map screencaps when storms emerge, but this is a great way to keep us posted all the time
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GeorgeStGeorge
That was my thinking.
Apparently, the disturbance off Africa dissipated. The one currently off Louisiana is not expected to strengthen, but should bring some much-needed rain to Texas.
George
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GeorgeStGeorge
We've been pretty fortunate, so far. Saharan dust and the dry air that comes with it have pretty much kept any low from strengthening.
George
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GeorgeStGeorge
Daneille won't be bothering the US. It doesn't appear that Earl will, either:
George
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GeorgeStGeorge
Tracking "Fiona." Most models have it curve up into the Atlantic, though some portend landfall in Florida or the eastern Gulf.
George
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GeorgeStGeorge
Not impacting the US, but Fiona is hammering Puerto Rico, and looks to be hard on Turks and Caicos and Bermuda...
George
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waysider
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GeorgeStGeorge
On the other hand, that nasty little X off the coast of South America could very well wind up in the Gulf.
George
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GeorgeStGeorge
Soon to be Hermine. Most likely to hit Jamaica, Cuba and Florida. (Sorry, Raf, et al.)
George
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modcat5
This path is actually good for me, though it would bring some bad storms. Much better than a direct hit.
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Raf
So at this point it looks like I'm on the outskirts of this storm. It won't be great for us, but it could be a whole lot worse. I'm on the southeast coast of Florida, and this storm (Hermine? Ian?) Is headeded up the west coast of the state. That means a lot of wind and rain, but hurricane conditions? Ok, maybe...
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GeorgeStGeorge
Hermine must have developed quickly, and this one is Ian. Hermine is still near Africa. Expected to weaken back to a depression.
George
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modcat5
And it you look at the lower map, it looks like i'll have perfect kite flying weather as far as wind is concerned.
Not sure about rain.
If you're in the path and need help, let us know.
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penworks
We're in the path, but help isn't needed ... yet... fingers crossed. Thanks for thinking of us!
Hunkering down,
Charlene
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GeorgeStGeorge
The latest cone has it headed toward central Florida. (See above -- the picture continually updates.)
I know what it's like having a storm headed one's way. You never want it to hit you, but you don't want others to get hit, either.
George
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penworks
Indeed, GeorgeStGeorge.
Here's my update this morning
Update from Orlando: Hurricane Ian | Charlene L. Edge (charleneedge.com)
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GeorgeStGeorge
The current map (Wed. 11 AM EDT) indicates that Ian will go from a major hurricane to a tropical storm by early Thursday. Good news, such as it is.
George
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GeorgeStGeorge
Depression eleven is expected to become a storm today, but drift north and fizzle out in a couple of days.
George
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Raf
Not very good news. It means the storm sits still for hours and hours, weakening, yes, but starting as a major hurricane and pounding away until it's out of energy. It would be one thing if it moved, like Wilma did, bang-pow-out-of-town. But this one is just going to sit there for hours upon hours until it's out of steam. That's no relief to anyone except those who WOULD be in its path if it kept moving forward (Georgia and South Carolina are projected to get a Tropical Storm out of this).
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GeorgeStGeorge
I remember an old rule of thumb that inches of rainfall is approximately 60 divided by the translational (not rotational) speed of the storm. So, if it moves 5 mph, you get about a foot of rain. The map says that the speed is 9 mph, so one might estimate 7 inches of rain. That assumes, of course, that the storm doesn't slow down. Assuming Florida is 160 mi wide at that point, and the storm travels NE, its path across land will be about 224 miles. The storm map estimates that the storm will be over land for about 30 hours, so that would give an average of 7.5 mph, or 8 inches of rain. It will be interesting to see how well the rule of thumb predicts actual rainfall.
This estimate, of course, does not predict other hazards of the storm, such as wind damage and storm surge.
Hang in there.
George
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T-Bone
Hang in there Floridians!
I was watching the news the other night – it was unreal – the reporter is standing just inside a parking garage, and it looks like he’s in a wind tunnel!
And now I’m hearing Ian can intensify again
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GeorgeStGeorge
Apparently, it's expected to be a (minor, if that means anything) hurricane before it hits the Carolina coast.
When a storm is in the Gulf, one refers to a "dirty" side (north and east of the eye) and the "dry" side (west), because of the counter-clockwise rotation of the winds. That doesn't apply to an Atlantic storm, though, because now the counter-clockwise flow brings in Atlantic water. Florida gets pounded, no matter which side of the peninsula the storm resides.
George
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penworks
We're lucky to be okay here, no property damage, no flooding in our neighborhood and we have power. Beyond grateful, but it's totally shocking and sad to see what's happened in our state.
Edited by penworksTypo
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GeorgeStGeorge
Reminds me of Harvey, a few years ago. I never lost power, gas, water, phone or internet (though satellite TV was spotty). Flood waters came halfway up my driveway, then receded. Lots of people had it a LOT worse. Be thankful for your situation, and do what you can to help the less blessed. No "survivor guilt," though. That doesn't help anyone.
George
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