Are Sunspots Disappearing?

[markomalley]

The latest from NASA:

The sun is in the pits of the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century. Weeks and sometimes whole months go by without even a single tiny sunspot. The quiet has dragged out for more than two years, prompting some observers to wonder,

are sunspots disappearing

?

"Personally, I'm betting that sunspots are coming back," says researcher Matt Penn of the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson, Arizona. But, he allows, "there is some evidence that they won't."

Penn's colleague Bill Livingston of the NSO has been measuring the magnetic fields of sunspots for the past 17 years, and he has found a remarkable trend. Sunspot magnetism is on the decline:

Above:

Sunspot magnetic fields measured by Livingston and Penn from 1992 - Feb. 2009 using an infrared Zeeman splitting technique. [

more

]

"Sunspot magnetic fields are dropping by about 50 gauss per year," says Penn. "If we extrapolate this trend into the future, sunspots could completely vanish around the year 2015."

(

remainder of article snipped

)

Later on in the article, the NSO researchers Livingston and Penn (cited above) wonder if the Sun is entering a long-term period without sunspots known as the "Maunder Minimum" where, magnetic activity on the Sun is minimal. This minimum, along with the Spoerer Minimum, which preceded it, and the Dalton Minimum, which occurred afterwards, were coincident with the Little Ice Age that gripped the world from the 1500s through the first part of the 1800s.

So if this lack of sunspots is, in fact, a trend that is approaching zero, we could be in for some serious weather changes in the next few upcoming years.

[Ham]

we are now in a low part of an eleven year sunspot cycle. People started recording sunspot numbers about 130 years ago, and there is a recurring peak (and trough) roughly at an eleven year mark.

Edited September 4, 2009 by Ham

[Ham]

here is another chart you might find interesting..

I think wikipedia got it from NASA

[Ham]

here is a history chart from http://www.windows.ucar.edu/tour/link=/sun/images/sunspot_num_graph_big_jpg_image.html&edu=high

note the very long low period in the 1600's. If it happens again, there is no lack of precedence or anything..

[markomalley]

here is a history chart from http://www.windows.u...e.html&edu=high

note the very long low period in the 1600's. If it happens again, there is no lack of precedence or anything..

Right. This was the interesting part of it.

I understand your interest in sunspots due to their impact on E and F layer propagation. Back when I had room to set up HF antennas, I used to live and die by the sunspot cycle.

My interest are other impacts on the atmosphere that could impact climate for several years.

[RumRunner]

Right. This was the interesting part of it.

I understand your interest in sunspots due to their impact on E and F layer propagation. Back when I had room to set up HF antennas, I used to live and die by the sunspot cycle.

My interest are other impacts on the atmosphere that could impact climate for several years.

At HF you don't need to worry about rain fade - but....if you have significant increase in precip you will see rain fade reaching from Ka, Ku down into lower frequencies. However if you do the rain fade calcs - you'd need most of the temperate zones to become semi-tropical (in terms of precip) for that much fade down into HF. Of course with C band being used less for broad band and Ku, Ka increasing - well I wouldn't be buying direct TV any time soon.

Other impacts you're interested in? If they're something I've not heard of I'll be glad to pass them onto the NCAR ATAC for consideration

[Ham]

But don't worry. There is still life for a ham.. just takes a whole heck of a lot more real estate than a postage stamp sized lot in the city will provide.. which is all I have, for now..

in layman's language, it means I need really, really long (or high) antennas.. if I want to talk to anybody in France, England.. Yugoslavia..

the last solar maximum, before work, I would talk with at least a half a dozen stations in Europe on ten meters with less than ten watts rf in the morning.. if I don't see the same thing for fifty years or so.. oh well.. it was fun once..

You know.. if Marconi was born in these lean times in the 1600's we may never have seen the radio art advance in the manner it has..

Edited September 5, 2009 by Ham

[waysider]

You know.. if Marconi was born in these lean times in the 1600's we may never have seen the radio art advance in the manner it has..

Perhaps.

But TESLA, the true inventor of the radio, would have faced less opposition.

[RumRunner]

Spot on ( no pun intended WS )...Tesla was an einstein but was buried in history since he was a bit of a quirk. The history books even spell his first name incorrectly - it was Nicolai - not Nicholas...and he did more to pioneer early theories on wave propagation than marconi ever dreamed of hot italian hookers.

[HAPe4me]

I built a Tesla coil in junior high. that sucker could send a spark 3 feet.

But I thought the correct spelling of his first name was Nikola but 1964 was a long time ago and my memory might have been zapped by the 250 kv at (if I recall correctly) .01 ma.

Edited September 6, 2009 by HAPe4me

[George Aar]

Nikola Tesla, poster child for the "If you're so smart, why ain't you rich?" contingent...

[kimberly]

Speaking of quirk....that got me thinking about Einstein. He was about as much a quirk as they come...that exact word was attributed to him by his peers and what few close friends he had.

Tesla, also the name of a heavy metal band that was or is?