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Dow Hits 6000! How's your 401K?


George Aar
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A year or so ago the Dow was above 14000. I knew at the time that there was more than a little irrational enthusiasm for stocks and that there was a considerable amount of air that would soon be deflated from that overheated market, but I had no idea how MUCH!

Anybody got any good stock picks?

I didn't think so...

Jeezus, just how low can it go?

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About a year ago, I put my 401k all into the cash fund. When I "retired" last summer, I rolled it all into an IRA. The fund manager suggested a more aggressive portfolio, but I thought the market still seemed a little too volatile. I made about 2.5% last year, but I did make money.

George

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About a year ago, I put my 401k all into the cash fund. When I "retired" last summer, I rolled it all into an IRA. The fund manager suggested a more aggressive portfolio, but I thought the market still seemed a little too volatile. I made about 2.5% last year, but I did make money.

George

Well...in October '07 I pulled all my money out of wherever it was in the market and put it in a 7% annuity...in 10 years it will double!!! That's fine with me!!!! I also kept some in a 3% mm and can you believe it? I just bought a swiss chalet in the mountains, on 5 acres with a river, a bridge and a fresh water spring for $49k.

Buy foreclosures. GE. Sirrius.

And, I dare say, don't forget to "tithe" in anyway you chose-not necessarily monitarily, if you don't have it, but at least 10% in all other ways....contrary to the way, god still honors that giving...

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Anybody got any good stock picks?

Of course, to counter-balance the wisdom of putting all my IRA into cash, I bought 1000 shares of Dow Chemical stock right before Christmas. At $20/share, and the fact that Dow had never lowered its dividend in its history, I couldn't resist the 8.8% dividend yield, figuring that, sure, the stock would probably go down a little, but it would be essentially an 8.8% CD until the stocks went back up. And, after all, the news media had declared the deal with the Kuwaitis as "done." Naturally, about four days later the Kuwaitis backed out, leaving Dow, with its figurative nuts in its hand, trying to figure out how to handle the purchase of Rohm & Haas, which Dow lawyers had made so airtight they couldn't back out.

Well, I did get one dividend at the original rate, though by that time, the stock was trading at about $14. When it hit about $10, the dividend was cut by two-thirds. So now it's a 3% dividend yield on my investment, but the stock value has lost about two-thirds of its value.

On the other hand, if anyone wants to buy now (at about $6.75),the dividend yield is 8.8% again. ;)

George

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A year or so ago the Dow was above 14000. I knew at the time that there was more than a little irrational enthusiasm for stocks and that there was a considerable amount of air that would soon be deflated from that overheated market, but I had no idea how MUCH!

Anybody got any good stock picks?

I didn't think so...

Jeezus, just how low can it go?

Have you ever heard the following expression. "Good news is bad news and bad news is good news." The time to get out of stocks was when it hit 14,000. I agree with Waysider, stocks are dirt cheap but the problem is they are also getting cheaper. Probably the best bet is to dollar cost average. In other words, make regular investments on a weekly basis of the same amount each week. That way your cost per share moves with the market. Index funds are probably best because they have no loads and have no management fees because they do not require a money manager and just buy stocks listed on an index, like the Standard and Poor's 500 or Wilshire 5000.

When the market rises 15-20% above its lowest point chances are good that the worst is over.

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Oookay, but just how does one know when it's at it's "lowest point"?

Geo,

Good question! You don't know. No one knows. That's why it is a good idea dollar cost average. That way if you are putting the same amount in each week whether the market goes up or down the dollars you have invested is roughly going in lockstep with the market. If the market goes down you are buying more shares for the same money. When the market goes up the shares you purchased at or near the bottom will realize the most gain and at the same time they are averaging down the cost of the shares you purchased at a higher price.

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An index/mutual fund like the S&P 500 is like a big fat guy. He can move, but slowly.

An ETF say for energy, is like the fat guy's arm, reaching for a cookie, moving quickly. But it's a a temporary situation.

One must see the cookie before the fat guy and respond accordingly.

:biglaugh:

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