In Arizona we have a "stupid motorist law" for those who ignore posted warnings about floods and still try to drive through the flooded area. They are responsible to pay fines and for the rescue workers who have to save them.
The same should hold true for those who refuse to leave an area that were given evacuation orders due to an impending threat. They put themselves in harms way by there choice. They should pay for there decision if they need to be rescued.
In Arizona we have a "stupid motorist law" for those who ignore posted warnings about floods and still try to drive through the flooded area. They are responsible to pay fines and for the rescue workers who have to save them.
The same should hold true for those who refuse to leave an area that were given evacuation orders due to an impending threat. They put themselves in harms way by there choice. They should pay for there decision if they need to be rescued.
I think it's probably a bit more complicated in the case of evacuation orders... for some people anyway.
With the stupid motorist law, the situations are significantly simple, cut and dried (pun intended) and therefore not likely to generate legal challenges to the assessment of rescue costs.
We in Texas are getting better coverage than most people.
They were interviewing people as they got out. Many people had planned on leaving friday morning only to find the tital surge had already covered the evacuation roughts. They were stuck.
Areas in Corpus Christi 150 miles down the coast were flooded by the surge. Over in Orange that is 100 miles east of Houston the complete town was flooded by the surge. It came earlier than many people thought.
The biggest problem right now is no power. Houston is shut down because no power. I tried to call a business there to order a compresser and havn't gottten an answer. I first tried friday before it hit(they were shut down to allow employees to leave) up until today. No answer.
We live 275 miles away. Every day there are more people showing up because no power.
Also please be aware aware that it changed course on the last day. People in Galveston had less than 24 hrs to get out.
Don't start condeming them until you have been there in their shoes.
But yes there are stupid people. Three guys decided to ride out the storm on a pier. They called at 11 PM saying come get use. They were told to bad. They were eventually rescued at 3PM the next day. Only the end of the peir was left. So far there are only 5 confirmed dead in Galveston.
I think it's probably a bit more complicated in the case of evacuation orders... for some people anyway.
With the stupid motorist law, the situations are significantly simple, cut and dried (pun intended) and therefore not likely to generate legal challenges to the assessment of rescue costs.
This can not happen. I actually agree with Rocky on a subject.
I have no idea. Some people like really old people might be more scared about leaving than staying in what they're familiar with, and maybe some people don't think they have anywhere to go.
Well, I won't go and on, since I've never had to face this.
I agree with ex70'sHouston. A lot of people wanted to leave but couldn't due to the unusually fast storm surge. Even though this storm had category 2 winds, the storm surge was more like a category 4 storm. I think that this should make NOAA rethink their categorizations of storms, because the wind speeds are not an accurate way to measure the storm on it's own.
We also heard stories of people who had medical problems and couldn't evacuate. For example, there was a family that had an adult son in a wheelchair. The parents were going to move him out to evacuate, but the apartment complex shut off the elevators before they could leave. There was no way they could evacuate in time, so they had to shelter in place.
There are a lot of reasons why people didn't leave. Some are stupid, some are not. However, I personally feel we should focus on helping people and saving lives first, and the cost of it should come later.
People in Galveston had less than 24 hrs to get out.
From when? Mandatory evacuation orders for Galveston's West End were given on Wednesday (along with coastal Brazoria County and other areas). And it was apparent that Ike was headed to somewhere on the Texas coast as early as Monday. Galveston was hit harder than earlier expected, but if you live on the coast and a hurricane is coming, don't wait for the government to drag you out of your home! If I still lived in Jones Creek, I'd have been out on Wednesday.
I realize that there may have been extenuating circumstances that kept some people in place, but anyone who wanted to evacuate had plenty of time and warning.
I agree with ex70'sHouston. A lot of people wanted to leave but couldn't due to the unusually fast storm surge. Even though this storm had category 2 winds, the storm surge was more like a category 4 storm. I think that this should make NOAA rethink their categorizations of storms, because the wind speeds are not an accurate way to measure the storm on it's own.
I agree as well having just a tad of experience with tropical storm events.
First - Much glad you guys are OK and beginning to trickle back in here. Life s(cks after a hurricane.
I won't make any socio-political comments about evacuation here but wanted to address your comment about NOAA below. You seem like a pretty bright person in other posts so I thought you might like more info on storm surge. So...not trying to pick a fight with you or anything - especially since life still s(cks for you folks right now - but wanted to comment on how storm surge is calculated and give you some idea of what the physics of storm surge are.
Storm surge (as opposed to tidal surge) is indeed an almost completely wind driven event so wind speed is paramount as a measurement. The Saffir-Simpson scale is simplistic for surge however. It is a reasonable estimate of wind damage upon the storm making landfall and is a very good estimate of total storm intensity.
Storm surge (technically defined as height of water above normal astronomical tide level for this day and time) is primarily affected by four things, a) wind speed, b) radius of maximum winds, c) local "normal" astronomical tide levels and d) the bathymetry of the continental shelf across the area where the storm makes landfall - not just the eye - but the storm as defined by RMW (b above). It is usually modeled by something called a SLOSH model (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes). Tropical storm intensity is usually modeled using something called the Objective Dvorak Technique and includes 11 different indicies of storm intensity - not just wind speed by any means. Technically there is a fifth element (no pun intended on the movie) which is rainfall effect but that primarily affects estuaries.
Hence a cat 2 with a 600 mile diameter (Ike) will potentially have more storm surge over a wider area than a cat 4 that is 200 miles in diameter. The small cat 4 will devastate a small area very quickly and then be gone. In your case you guys got hit by a steam roller. Your tides were high. Texas, Louisiana have a broad and shallow shelf. The RMW was huge on this storm. Simplistically think of it this way. Which has more latent energy? A cup of boiling water or a 55 gallon drum at 100F? Answer the drum. And you guys got hit by the 55 gallon drum.
Next time there is a trop storm (and you are not the target) go to NHC and click on a named storm. There will be some links at the top - above the graphics. One will be "Public Advisory" - that is from NHC and directed to the public at large. One is called "Discussion" as is for people in the business - it will be boring to most people who are not well versed in tropical storm physics. Another is called "Advisory." Advisory will be interesting to you. It contains plain-text that will give RMW at three levels; hurricane, tropical storm and gale force winds in each of the four quadrants of the storm. It can be a little annoying to read because RMW is not measured in miles or kilometers but in degrees of a great circle arc around the sphere of the earth. Also in "Advisory" you will see reports with the header WTNTXYY where X is the storm number of the season and YY is the sequential number of the report for that storm. Those will make for a good read for you.
There reason you hear so much about Saffir-Simpson is that is about all that most broadcast "meteorologists" know about. The rest gets technical quickly and doesn't make for a great "media event" (journalist bravely leaning into the wind as pieces of roof blow by - hmm how does the camera operator keep so steady???). They do NOT accurately report NOAA's calculations on a regular basis. This I know from much experience in emergency operations centers.
However when the wall of water is on top of you - you aren't really thinking about any of the above...(I hate smileys or I'd put one here)
Ok, I'm ignoring all the techy stuff, as I don't get it. Sorry.
My mom and I cared for my bed ridden Dad for 4 years, here in the Houston area. Speaking from experience here.....(He is no longer living, passed away in 2003.)
My Dad was bedridden, on a feeding tube, and oxygen. He also had a defibultor for his heart, and needed dialysis. Evacuation was NOT AN OPTION. We couldn't get him out on our own. And there was no help available.
If we evacuated, he would have died. These are the kinds of choices people are faced with. Not everyone can just pack up and leave at a moment's notice.
Ok, I'm ignoring all the techy stuff, as I don't get it. Sorry.
My mom and I cared for my bed ridden Dad for 4 years, here in the Houston area. Speaking from experience here.....(He is no longer living, passed away in 2003.)
My Dad was bedridden, on a feeding tube, and oxygen. He also had a defibultor for his heart, and needed dialysis. Evacuation was NOT AN OPTION. We couldn't get him out on our own. And there was no help available.
If we evacuated, he would have died. These are the kinds of choices people are faced with. Not everyone can just pack up and leave at a moment's notice.
And I'm sure there are plenty of variations on that theme that makes it extremely difficult for people to evacuate... which is what I was getting at when I mentioned things being more complicated than when washes flood during summer thunderstorms here in AZ.
Thanks for the explanation. Next time, I'll read the documents you mentioned on the NHC website to make a decision. Do you mind if I copy and paste your notes as an anonymous set of information for me to forward on to a few people that I know.
No sweat Mr-P-Mosh - feel free but yes please do keep it anonymous
RumRunner,
Thanks for the explanation. Next time, I'll read the documents you mentioned on the NHC website to make a decision. Do you mind if I copy and paste your notes as an anonymous set of information for me to forward on to a few people that I know.
I'm sorta like ex-10 when it comes to the technical stuff...although I DO appreciate that Rumrunner is posting his info...
as for me, I went through a hurricane in Houston before (Alicia)...and it's no fun. As far as I'm concerned, if a person chooses to stay or if they simply cannot leave...they should all be given every effort to rescue them...No one should be penalized because they chose to stay.
i don't live in the part of the country were devisating weather comes often,but i think if i did and the experts told me to get out i would.why should we as tax payers pay for the damn fools who won't move and endanger the lives of the rescuers? should't you evacute if given the oppertunity?
If it's a Federal State of emergency, and FEMA orders the evacuation?
Yes it should be $5,000 and 5 years in Federal prison if duly notified and refuse to leave. On the same token if they do leave and lose everything the Fed needs to pony up the resources to insure a safe return to the area. And looters, shot on sight.
If it's a Federal State of emergency, and FEMA orders the evacuation?
Yes it should be $5,000 and 5 years in Federal prison if duly notified and refuse to leave. On the same token if they do leave and lose everything the Fed needs to pony up the resources to insure a safe return to the area. And looters, shot on sight.
Seth
I have a problem with the shooting looters thing, as it's illegal for the police to shoot people who don't pose a threat to them. If it's a looter with a gun pointed towards a cop or some innocent people, that's fine. However, if it's someone in New Orleans trying to swim through flood waters with a raft full of bottled water stolen from a destroyed grocery store that they are taking to their elderly neighbors who couldn't leave their house, I don't think they deserve to die.
I think the normal law covers it pretty well. The police should try to arrest people they suspect are committing a crime, even if it is a Robin Hood type situation. If it is, that person will have their day in court and hopefully all will wind up ok in the end. If you kill someone, there's no undo button.
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Zshot
In Arizona we have a "stupid motorist law" for those who ignore posted warnings about floods and still try to drive through the flooded area. They are responsible to pay fines and for the rescue workers who have to save them.
The same should hold true for those who refuse to leave an area that were given evacuation orders due to an impending threat. They put themselves in harms way by there choice. They should pay for there decision if they need to be rescued.
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Rocky
I think it's probably a bit more complicated in the case of evacuation orders... for some people anyway.
With the stupid motorist law, the situations are significantly simple, cut and dried (pun intended) and therefore not likely to generate legal challenges to the assessment of rescue costs.
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ex70sHouston
We in Texas are getting better coverage than most people.
They were interviewing people as they got out. Many people had planned on leaving friday morning only to find the tital surge had already covered the evacuation roughts. They were stuck.
Areas in Corpus Christi 150 miles down the coast were flooded by the surge. Over in Orange that is 100 miles east of Houston the complete town was flooded by the surge. It came earlier than many people thought.
The biggest problem right now is no power. Houston is shut down because no power. I tried to call a business there to order a compresser and havn't gottten an answer. I first tried friday before it hit(they were shut down to allow employees to leave) up until today. No answer.
We live 275 miles away. Every day there are more people showing up because no power.
Also please be aware aware that it changed course on the last day. People in Galveston had less than 24 hrs to get out.
Don't start condeming them until you have been there in their shoes.
But yes there are stupid people. Three guys decided to ride out the storm on a pier. They called at 11 PM saying come get use. They were told to bad. They were eventually rescued at 3PM the next day. Only the end of the peir was left. So far there are only 5 confirmed dead in Galveston.
This can not happen. I actually agree with Rocky on a subject.
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excathedra
I have no idea. Some people like really old people might be more scared about leaving than staying in what they're familiar with, and maybe some people don't think they have anywhere to go.
Well, I won't go and on, since I've never had to face this.
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Mister P-Mosh
I agree with ex70'sHouston. A lot of people wanted to leave but couldn't due to the unusually fast storm surge. Even though this storm had category 2 winds, the storm surge was more like a category 4 storm. I think that this should make NOAA rethink their categorizations of storms, because the wind speeds are not an accurate way to measure the storm on it's own.
We also heard stories of people who had medical problems and couldn't evacuate. For example, there was a family that had an adult son in a wheelchair. The parents were going to move him out to evacuate, but the apartment complex shut off the elevators before they could leave. There was no way they could evacuate in time, so they had to shelter in place.
There are a lot of reasons why people didn't leave. Some are stupid, some are not. However, I personally feel we should focus on helping people and saving lives first, and the cost of it should come later.
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GeorgeStGeorge
From when? Mandatory evacuation orders for Galveston's West End were given on Wednesday (along with coastal Brazoria County and other areas). And it was apparent that Ike was headed to somewhere on the Texas coast as early as Monday. Galveston was hit harder than earlier expected, but if you live on the coast and a hurricane is coming, don't wait for the government to drag you out of your home! If I still lived in Jones Creek, I'd have been out on Wednesday.
I realize that there may have been extenuating circumstances that kept some people in place, but anyone who wanted to evacuate had plenty of time and warning.
George
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RumRunner
I agree as well having just a tad of experience with tropical storm events.
First - Much glad you guys are OK and beginning to trickle back in here. Life s(cks after a hurricane.
I won't make any socio-political comments about evacuation here but wanted to address your comment about NOAA below. You seem like a pretty bright person in other posts so I thought you might like more info on storm surge. So...not trying to pick a fight with you or anything - especially since life still s(cks for you folks right now - but wanted to comment on how storm surge is calculated and give you some idea of what the physics of storm surge are.
Storm surge (as opposed to tidal surge) is indeed an almost completely wind driven event so wind speed is paramount as a measurement. The Saffir-Simpson scale is simplistic for surge however. It is a reasonable estimate of wind damage upon the storm making landfall and is a very good estimate of total storm intensity.
Storm surge (technically defined as height of water above normal astronomical tide level for this day and time) is primarily affected by four things, a) wind speed, b) radius of maximum winds, c) local "normal" astronomical tide levels and d) the bathymetry of the continental shelf across the area where the storm makes landfall - not just the eye - but the storm as defined by RMW (b above). It is usually modeled by something called a SLOSH model (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes). Tropical storm intensity is usually modeled using something called the Objective Dvorak Technique and includes 11 different indicies of storm intensity - not just wind speed by any means. Technically there is a fifth element (no pun intended on the movie) which is rainfall effect but that primarily affects estuaries.
Hence a cat 2 with a 600 mile diameter (Ike) will potentially have more storm surge over a wider area than a cat 4 that is 200 miles in diameter. The small cat 4 will devastate a small area very quickly and then be gone. In your case you guys got hit by a steam roller. Your tides were high. Texas, Louisiana have a broad and shallow shelf. The RMW was huge on this storm. Simplistically think of it this way. Which has more latent energy? A cup of boiling water or a 55 gallon drum at 100F? Answer the drum. And you guys got hit by the 55 gallon drum.
Next time there is a trop storm (and you are not the target) go to NHC and click on a named storm. There will be some links at the top - above the graphics. One will be "Public Advisory" - that is from NHC and directed to the public at large. One is called "Discussion" as is for people in the business - it will be boring to most people who are not well versed in tropical storm physics. Another is called "Advisory." Advisory will be interesting to you. It contains plain-text that will give RMW at three levels; hurricane, tropical storm and gale force winds in each of the four quadrants of the storm. It can be a little annoying to read because RMW is not measured in miles or kilometers but in degrees of a great circle arc around the sphere of the earth. Also in "Advisory" you will see reports with the header WTNTXYY where X is the storm number of the season and YY is the sequential number of the report for that storm. Those will make for a good read for you.
There reason you hear so much about Saffir-Simpson is that is about all that most broadcast "meteorologists" know about. The rest gets technical quickly and doesn't make for a great "media event" (journalist bravely leaning into the wind as pieces of roof blow by - hmm how does the camera operator keep so steady???). They do NOT accurately report NOAA's calculations on a regular basis. This I know from much experience in emergency operations centers.
However when the wall of water is on top of you - you aren't really thinking about any of the above...(I hate smileys or I'd put one here)
Glad you're OK
edited for bad spelling
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ex10
Ok, I'm ignoring all the techy stuff, as I don't get it. Sorry.
My mom and I cared for my bed ridden Dad for 4 years, here in the Houston area. Speaking from experience here.....(He is no longer living, passed away in 2003.)
My Dad was bedridden, on a feeding tube, and oxygen. He also had a defibultor for his heart, and needed dialysis. Evacuation was NOT AN OPTION. We couldn't get him out on our own. And there was no help available.
If we evacuated, he would have died. These are the kinds of choices people are faced with. Not everyone can just pack up and leave at a moment's notice.
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Rocky
And I'm sure there are plenty of variations on that theme that makes it extremely difficult for people to evacuate... which is what I was getting at when I mentioned things being more complicated than when washes flood during summer thunderstorms here in AZ.
SOOOOOOOOOOOO Glad you're all OKAY today. :)
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Mister P-Mosh
RumRunner,
Thanks for the explanation. Next time, I'll read the documents you mentioned on the NHC website to make a decision. Do you mind if I copy and paste your notes as an anonymous set of information for me to forward on to a few people that I know.
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Watered Garden
Thank you, RR, a perfect explanation of why Hugo, a category 4, did a lot of damage over a smaller area, but not so much as Ike.
Keeps reminding me of the 1952 political slogan when Eisenhower was running for President, "I like Ike".
Well, I don't much like THIS Ike. And Ohio got very little compared to y'all in Texas.
WG
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ex70sHouston
Something else to remember. How long does it take from the time the evacuation order comes and you hear about it.
I don't always hear the news at work when things are busy. An 8 hour delay can cause major problems if the order is not given early enough.
Another problem for Galvestion is that they have to evacuate through the Houston metro area.
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RumRunner
No sweat Mr-P-Mosh - feel free but yes please do keep it anonymous
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GrouchoMarxJr
I'm sorta like ex-10 when it comes to the technical stuff...although I DO appreciate that Rumrunner is posting his info...
as for me, I went through a hurricane in Houston before (Alicia)...and it's no fun. As far as I'm concerned, if a person chooses to stay or if they simply cannot leave...they should all be given every effort to rescue them...No one should be penalized because they chose to stay.
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Seth R.
If it's a Federal State of emergency, and FEMA orders the evacuation?
Yes it should be $5,000 and 5 years in Federal prison if duly notified and refuse to leave. On the same token if they do leave and lose everything the Fed needs to pony up the resources to insure a safe return to the area. And looters, shot on sight.
Seth
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Mister P-Mosh
I have a problem with the shooting looters thing, as it's illegal for the police to shoot people who don't pose a threat to them. If it's a looter with a gun pointed towards a cop or some innocent people, that's fine. However, if it's someone in New Orleans trying to swim through flood waters with a raft full of bottled water stolen from a destroyed grocery store that they are taking to their elderly neighbors who couldn't leave their house, I don't think they deserve to die.
I think the normal law covers it pretty well. The police should try to arrest people they suspect are committing a crime, even if it is a Robin Hood type situation. If it is, that person will have their day in court and hopefully all will wind up ok in the end. If you kill someone, there's no undo button.
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