The problem is our large trade deficit (currently about 800 billion dollars per year) because of jobs going overseas and south of the border for cheaper labor. This decrease in corporate labor expenses can cause as increase in corporate profits and cause the stocks to go up in value also. The problem with this however, is the loss of money in our U.S. economy due to the large trade defict. This would hurt corporations who sell products in the U.S. as people would then have less money to spend, but the government is simply borrowing the lost money back into the economy. The amount of the trade deficit with the increased government and consumer debt to cover this up is not sustainable.
Of course, some people that profit from ever increasing debt, for example real estate agents, stock brokers, bankers, etc. like this. The only time they will ever see or care about a financial crisis is when their commission check comes late in the mail.
I agree that it's a long term investment, and I have my 401Ks and some of my money put into stuff for the long term. I also do options trading and sometimes make big percentage gains as a result of that in the short term.
My concern though is for the overall health of the economy. I don't see why stocks are rising while other economic indicators are saying, "DANGER WILL ROBINSON!". What I think is that as other sectors of the economy fail, more people are putting their money into stocks. More specifically, the rich have to put their money somewhere, and if real estate is failing like it is, the stock market is a safer bet.
The problem though is that most people don't adhere to the old adage, "buy low and sell high." Your giddiness over the Dow's increase is a good sign that it's time to sell. When people start complaining on the media about how poorly the stock market is doing, it's time to buy. The way to make short term money on the stock market is to treat it like a sociological game where you do the opposite of what everyone else does. That's pretty much how Jim Cramer made his money, along with many other successful investors.
So my negative take on it is due to seeing stocks overvalued as people don't know what else to do with their money. Once the smart people start selling it all off, the less smart and the huge investment companies will start buying all of it up, which eventually results in a big selloff and makes the media criticize how stocks are doing.
Personally, I like toying with options because they are cheap to get into, and it's easy to make big money in a short amount of time, considering you are ok with taking a few small losses between every big win. I didn't have time to do anything because I was in training all of last week, but GM would have been a great stock option to buy the minute that the union went on strike. When the strike was over, they rebounded. If you would have had some options set for next month, you should have been able to sell for a double digit gain (providing your options weren't set at some crazy number.) Unfortunately for me, I often miss being able to take advantage of opportunities like that, and sometimes get it wrong when I do and miss out on a huge gain.
It's a long term investment..not a get rich quick deal.
M-P-M....I'm not suprised at your negative take on it. Fits with all you other doom and gloom outlook. :blink:
Even if your right..I'd just start all over and do it again.
Once upon a time...we were all little children, and like good little children we believed what we were being told. Now though, when the “banking boys” making the millions in bonuses on Wall Street send your fuel bills for heating or look over your shoulder as you fill the little automobile, do you begin to think that maybe the “system” might be rigged?? <_<
Credit card consumer debt, M1, M2 non-savings, Chinese $$ reserves & foreign zillions holding your currency & national economy hostage, or maybe just wondering what that old term “inflation” really means? Sub-prime lenders bending your fenders? Chinese toys litter the shelves and you wonder what to buy for Christmas (don’t use that word!)...excuse me, what is US $$ worth? Less than a Loonie in the Canadian boonie!
How will the bankers bail out the lenders, and your friends at the Fed will sing you a lullaby of American strong dollar praises? Lions and Tigers and Bears...there’s no recession in sight, right?
Good thing those large cap guys have foreign operations! Don’t give up (on tech), it can only get worse! (Don’t mind me, I’m still hung over from shopping the last two months!) Bump
I've been waiting for the other shoe to drop for a couple of years now. Maybe it's not too far off now?
We've been exporting jobs and raw materials for a couple of decades now.
The upper 1% have been multipying their incomes every couple of years while the middle class has stayed stagnant or receded.
The top CEOs and Hedge fund managers routinely rake in salaries in the 7 digits while unions are dwindling and dying on the vine. We don't manufacture anything anymore. Our currency is being artificially supported by the very countries we used to view as arch enemies.
I've been waiting for the other shoe to drop for a couple of years now. Maybe it's not too far off now?
We've been exporting jobs and raw materials for a couple of decades now.
The upper 1% have been multipying their incomes every couple of years while the middle class has stayed stagnant or receded.
The top CEOs and Hedge fund managers routinely rake in salaries in the 7 digits while unions are dwindling and dying on the vine. We don't manufacture anything anymore. Our currency is being artificially supported by the very countries we used to view as arch enemies.
Something is very wrong. VERY wrong...
I know I see recession marching steadily onward, ready to engulf us in its bottomless pit. :(
so... Bumpy... anyone else... wanna get a few folks together to buy a condo there? ...we could probably get a pretty good deal!
Bump is ready, cash in fist! I guess if you guys can't afford the Euro Chateau here in France we have to go down market with all the gays on Miami Beach!
hmmm... reminds me of when I used to make money "investing" in yen!
your link yesterday was quite timely Bumpy... last night on Nightline they had a long segment on "condo vultures" in Miami...
More timely crap...? IMO, You haven’t seen nothing yet! This liquidity drain is going to get a whole lot worse before we see...what? Clean energy? Those condo cowboys are just the tip of what’s lying beneath the waves. Oil price speculators (and taxes) have driven diesel here up 20% in two months to US $5.50 a gallon!
Imagine how the 3rd world has to cope? My African taxi guy was always on empty before I left. Now, I don’t even want to know.
I could cut and paste a bunch of crap but Wells Fargo pretty much said it all with this one:
You could soon see a real panik sell off, because everything is basically connected to a perfect storm scenario. If you can connect the dots, the bear is there and so is our cyclical recession. Lowering interest rates will (not) inflate us out of the problem. <_<
Watching the US Dollar fall to new record lows on a daily basis might be boring or uninteresting for most grease spotters? And watching billions in investor capital being wiped off the table as Wall Street bankers collect record bonuses, (and oil goes through the stratosphere...)
But today if you watch closely, there maybe some oversized turkeys crash landing on some Thanksgiving investment portfolios. Watch out below! :unsure:
Watching the US Dollar fall to new record lows on a daily basis might be boring or uninteresting for most grease spotters? And watching billions in investor capital being wiped off the table as Wall Street bankers collect record bonuses, (and oil goes through the stratosphere...)
But today if you watch closely, there maybe some oversized turkeys crash landing on some Thanksgiving investment portfolios. Watch out below! :unsure:
I'm just trying to decide if I should move my savings account over to Euros or CAD. Right now, I do have foreign investments as part of my retirement, but that's about it. I know if the U.S. goes into a big recession it will hurt foreign markets too, but not as bad as it will hurt those of us in the U.S.
I'm just trying to decide if I should move my savings account over to Euros or CAD. Right now, I do have foreign investments as part of my retirement, but that's about it. I know if the U.S. goes into a big recession it will hurt foreign markets too, but not as bad as it will hurt those of us in the U.S.
Don't really have much in the way of laughter to offer after the last few days of market action. But just thought I would recommend, a good old Christian prayer for all those out there, watching the state of the US economy in disrepair! <_<
With the entire U.S. economy so dependant on debt and finance it is easy to see why it would be on such a roller coaster. If they lower interest rates the stock market along with real estate prices will go up or remain the same. If they raise interest rates the stock market or real estate prices will go down. And if they keep interest rates about the same the stock market and real estate prices will also go down. I was hearing a couple of weeks ago that after the fed lowered interest rates a little the investors were already complaining that the fed should lower the interest rates even more.
Easy money is not always the answer ... if the dollar has problems and inflation becomes rampant ... the fed is in a box ... I think ... I don't really know ther terminology that well. Pushing on a string is another expression ...
But in general, if there is already over building and too much easy moeny, more easy money is not the answer. If you build a house for nobody, it doesn't matter if you are paying no interest, you still have your money in a house that isn't selling, and whose value is declining. Same is true for other industries.
But everyone needs to eat ... so will limited food rasie prices? (thanks Bumpy, I had seen tyhat from Prudent Bear)
well now what? The DOW looks to open around 11,700 this morning. Monday and Tuesday around the world stocks are down over 10% ... yes, in two days. Yikes ...
There is a little recovery, but it is pretty scary ... worst day in 18 years in Australia I think I heard.
i have lived through recession before it isnt a neccesarily doom day thing.. we often recover quite fast and certain service will always be maintained. people will still get sick folks will still eat food etc.
some will decline others will raise it is what the rise and fall is all about do not believe it is such a disaester will will all perish.. in election years these reports are almost always highlighted .
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Mister P-Mosh
It's only a matter of time before this bubble bursts and we're all in 1929 again.
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GarthP2000
In 1929, the stock wasn't even a 10th the level it is now, and I don't think that the number is a good barometer to exclusively go by.
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Hills Bro
I'm happy..
the market is not for the faint of heart...track its historicle record...it's gone up.
It's a long term investment..not a get rich quick deal.
M-P-M....I'm not suprised at your negative take on it. Fits with all you other doom and gloom outlook. :blink:
Even if your right..I'd just start all over and do it again.
Edited by Hills BroLink to comment
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Mark Sanguinetti
The problem is our large trade deficit (currently about 800 billion dollars per year) because of jobs going overseas and south of the border for cheaper labor. This decrease in corporate labor expenses can cause as increase in corporate profits and cause the stocks to go up in value also. The problem with this however, is the loss of money in our U.S. economy due to the large trade defict. This would hurt corporations who sell products in the U.S. as people would then have less money to spend, but the government is simply borrowing the lost money back into the economy. The amount of the trade deficit with the increased government and consumer debt to cover this up is not sustainable.
Of course, some people that profit from ever increasing debt, for example real estate agents, stock brokers, bankers, etc. like this. The only time they will ever see or care about a financial crisis is when their commission check comes late in the mail.
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Mister P-Mosh
I agree that it's a long term investment, and I have my 401Ks and some of my money put into stuff for the long term. I also do options trading and sometimes make big percentage gains as a result of that in the short term.
My concern though is for the overall health of the economy. I don't see why stocks are rising while other economic indicators are saying, "DANGER WILL ROBINSON!". What I think is that as other sectors of the economy fail, more people are putting their money into stocks. More specifically, the rich have to put their money somewhere, and if real estate is failing like it is, the stock market is a safer bet.
The problem though is that most people don't adhere to the old adage, "buy low and sell high." Your giddiness over the Dow's increase is a good sign that it's time to sell. When people start complaining on the media about how poorly the stock market is doing, it's time to buy. The way to make short term money on the stock market is to treat it like a sociological game where you do the opposite of what everyone else does. That's pretty much how Jim Cramer made his money, along with many other successful investors.
So my negative take on it is due to seeing stocks overvalued as people don't know what else to do with their money. Once the smart people start selling it all off, the less smart and the huge investment companies will start buying all of it up, which eventually results in a big selloff and makes the media criticize how stocks are doing.
Personally, I like toying with options because they are cheap to get into, and it's easy to make big money in a short amount of time, considering you are ok with taking a few small losses between every big win. I didn't have time to do anything because I was in training all of last week, but GM would have been a great stock option to buy the minute that the union went on strike. When the strike was over, they rebounded. If you would have had some options set for next month, you should have been able to sell for a double digit gain (providing your options weren't set at some crazy number.) Unfortunately for me, I often miss being able to take advantage of opportunities like that, and sometimes get it wrong when I do and miss out on a huge gain.
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Bumpy
Once upon a time...we were all little children, and like good little children we believed what we were being told. Now though, when the “banking boys” making the millions in bonuses on Wall Street send your fuel bills for heating or look over your shoulder as you fill the little automobile, do you begin to think that maybe the “system” might be rigged?? <_<
Credit card consumer debt, M1, M2 non-savings, Chinese $$ reserves & foreign zillions holding your currency & national economy hostage, or maybe just wondering what that old term “inflation” really means? Sub-prime lenders bending your fenders? Chinese toys litter the shelves and you wonder what to buy for Christmas (don’t use that word!)...excuse me, what is US $$ worth? Less than a Loonie in the Canadian boonie!
How will the bankers bail out the lenders, and your friends at the Fed will sing you a lullaby of American strong dollar praises? Lions and Tigers and Bears...there’s no recession in sight, right?
Good thing those large cap guys have foreign operations! Don’t give up (on tech), it can only get worse! (Don’t mind me, I’m still hung over from shopping the last two months!)
Bump
http://www.mortgagenewswatch.com/newsviewe...EN%26bfem%5E%21
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George Aar
Dow hits 12,000 - AGAIN!
I've been waiting for the other shoe to drop for a couple of years now. Maybe it's not too far off now?
We've been exporting jobs and raw materials for a couple of decades now.
The upper 1% have been multipying their incomes every couple of years while the middle class has stayed stagnant or receded.
The top CEOs and Hedge fund managers routinely rake in salaries in the 7 digits while unions are dwindling and dying on the vine. We don't manufacture anything anymore. Our currency is being artificially supported by the very countries we used to view as arch enemies.
Something is very wrong. VERY wrong...
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Rocky
I know I see recession marching steadily onward, ready to engulf us in its bottomless pit. :(
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Bumpy
This might be part of the problem!
http://www.reuters.com/article/inDepthNews...=22&sp=true
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Tom Strange
so... Bumpy... anyone else... wanna get a few folks together to buy a condo there? ...we could probably get a pretty good deal!
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Bumpy
Bump is ready, cash in fist! I guess if you guys can't afford the Euro Chateau here in France we have to go down market with all the gays on Miami Beach!
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Tom Strange
buy it, hold it for a couple of years or so... then... ???
I hear they've run out of land to 'expand' on down there due to the aquifer and such...
France? ...'she who must be obeyed' keeps wanting to go there... but she wants to go to Paris, I'd much rather see the countryside...
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Bumpy
Tom, I just remembered...I've got that extra African beach property, so I'll have to hold off on the Florida deal!
But if you want more "bang 4 your investment buck", you might get lucky on the dark continent! Then again, it's not for the faint of heart!
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Bumpy
This may be of interest to some of you, especially if you plan on foreign travel in the future?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home
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Tom Strange
hmmm... reminds me of when I used to make money "investing" in yen!
your link yesterday was quite timely Bumpy... last night on Nightline they had a long segment on "condo vultures" in Miami...
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Bumpy
More timely crap...? IMO, You haven’t seen nothing yet! This liquidity drain is going to get a whole lot worse before we see...what? Clean energy? Those condo cowboys are just the tip of what’s lying beneath the waves. Oil price speculators (and taxes) have driven diesel here up 20% in two months to US $5.50 a gallon!
Imagine how the 3rd world has to cope? My African taxi guy was always on empty before I left. Now, I don’t even want to know.
I could cut and paste a bunch of crap but Wells Fargo pretty much said it all with this one:
http://www.thestreet.com/s/stocks-take-ano...y/10390247.html
You could soon see a real panik sell off, because everything is basically connected to a perfect storm scenario. If you can connect the dots, the bear is there and so is our cyclical recession. Lowering interest rates will (not) inflate us out of the problem. <_<
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Bumpy
Watching the US Dollar fall to new record lows on a daily basis might be boring or uninteresting for most grease spotters? And watching billions in investor capital being wiped off the table as Wall Street bankers collect record bonuses, (and oil goes through the stratosphere...)
But today if you watch closely, there maybe some oversized turkeys crash landing on some Thanksgiving investment portfolios. Watch out below! :unsure:
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Mister P-Mosh
I'm just trying to decide if I should move my savings account over to Euros or CAD. Right now, I do have foreign investments as part of my retirement, but that's about it. I know if the U.S. goes into a big recession it will hurt foreign markets too, but not as bad as it will hurt those of us in the U.S.
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Bumpy
Just in case this is of interest?
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8...=1&catnum=4
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Bumpy
Don't really have much in the way of laughter to offer after the last few days of market action. But just thought I would recommend, a good old Christian prayer for all those out there, watching the state of the US economy in disrepair! <_<
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22501403
Prepare for the coming Recession!
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Mark Sanguinetti
With the entire U.S. economy so dependant on debt and finance it is easy to see why it would be on such a roller coaster. If they lower interest rates the stock market along with real estate prices will go up or remain the same. If they raise interest rates the stock market or real estate prices will go down. And if they keep interest rates about the same the stock market and real estate prices will also go down. I was hearing a couple of weeks ago that after the fed lowered interest rates a little the investors were already complaining that the fed should lower the interest rates even more.
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rhino
Easy money is not always the answer ... if the dollar has problems and inflation becomes rampant ... the fed is in a box ... I think ... I don't really know ther terminology that well. Pushing on a string is another expression ...
But in general, if there is already over building and too much easy moeny, more easy money is not the answer. If you build a house for nobody, it doesn't matter if you are paying no interest, you still have your money in a house that isn't selling, and whose value is declining. Same is true for other industries.
But everyone needs to eat ... so will limited food rasie prices? (thanks Bumpy, I had seen tyhat from Prudent Bear)
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rhino
well now what? The DOW looks to open around 11,700 this morning. Monday and Tuesday around the world stocks are down over 10% ... yes, in two days. Yikes ...
There is a little recovery, but it is pretty scary ... worst day in 18 years in Australia I think I heard.
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pond
i have lived through recession before it isnt a neccesarily doom day thing.. we often recover quite fast and certain service will always be maintained. people will still get sick folks will still eat food etc.
some will decline others will raise it is what the rise and fall is all about do not believe it is such a disaester will will all perish.. in election years these reports are almost always highlighted .
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