My Friends, I don't mean to interrupt you but this maybe worth noting? It's something which is possibly a long term bad news situation for lots of people in the credit market. The 3rd world is most effected first when billions of capital are wiped out!
God Bless You, Bump
My Friends, I don't mean to interrupt you but this maybe worth noting? It's something which is possibly a long term bad news situation for lots of people in the credit market. The 3rd world is most effected first when billions of capital are wiped out!
My Friends, I don't mean to interrupt you but this maybe worth noting? It's something which is possibly a long term bad news situation for lots of people in the credit market. The 3rd world is most effected first when billions of capital are wiped out!
What happens in the third world?
So another hedge fund in the poker game found no one was buying their bluff. But that doesn't effect us, except they are the same guys playing the housing market, and they are upside down on the 12 houses they are flipping. But the gov' will come to the rescue and introduce "liquidity", whatever that is ....
I wish I really understood all those cool terms :)
I can't see China trying to trash our market, as long as they are so dependent on it. Maybe we will just not accept their silly little certificates. If they are going to declare financial war, can't we just "cancel the debt"? How are they going to repossess? (that's what happens when you don't pay the exorcist ... you get repossessed :))
I sit here about 12 hours a day in front of all these screens of graphs, noise boxes and market information, trying to make some sense of it all? Honestly, I think it’s really nothing more than advanced casino gambling in the devil’s basement! But it sure can get exciting!! :)
I thought this guy had some interesting things to say about investing & what to do given the market turmoil we are watching?
The rain in Spain falls mainly on the plain. As for the markets, it may be time to start that 13,000 thread real soon! ....be happy, don’t worry! Love that song!
Gee Bumpy, you didn't say it would happen all in one day ... what's next after 13,000?
My problem is some banker’s hate to lose face! And I’ve got time for this kaka about 5 months a year. But, I get this kinda prophet like feeeeling, which is why they pay me! I can’t help it, but I feeeel when it’s about to hit. And then it does? What you’re watching is a fallout and it’s going to get worse, and this ain’t the thread to post it on. But if you can bail out and watch it in a foreign currency...da pain will feel like Tennessee rain!!
What you're watching is a fallout and it's going to get worse, and this ain't the thread to post it on. But if you can bail out and watch it in a foreign currency...da pain will feel like Tennessee rain!!
Well that was a really good call ...
So people were giddy at 14,000 and we went to 10,900, where people are terrified of losing their life savings. The expression is "buy when there is blood in the streets"
But they do need to get these guys reined in, since they are using "the people's money" (investors I mean) and leveraging it 25 to 1. Even Fannie and Freddie were maxing out their credit cards which were cosigned by mama government (US).
Well, that's what I like about talk, it is cheap ... but everyone has money somewhere, so all are invested ... and our limited amount of time is invested as well ... :)
But here is an article on derivative games ... for those that want to play along at home ... not that I get it all, but it cleared up a few things to me ...
The best analogy would be to picture watching a poker game and around the table are the biggest Wall Street Sharks. A lot of chips are on the table and depending on the accounting treatment used, each player would claim to have won the entire pot even though the last cards have yet to be dealt.
The problem is, those cards will be dealt eventually and someone is going to have to book a loss. In this type of poker game, if you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy! A number of investors in some big subprime mortgage hedge funds just found this out.
For the past couple of years, 40 percent of profits in the S&P 500 have come from financing activities, and financial profits have a long way to fall just to get back to historical averages. Remember, the U.S. economy has been driven by the financial system which has created an unprecedented level of debt. For those of you celebrating when the Dow edged up toward 14,000 and the S&P 500 hit a new record high, you may find the next celebration a long time coming. The recent stock market slide is caused primarily by worries over credit quality and excess leverage. The problems are just beginning.
So I don't know, the DOW could go to 10,000 again and still be in the uptrend I think. Party on Garth ... and everyone else too :)
Just thought I'd bring this up again ... as Bumpy and I were talking of this derivative calamity over a year ago ...
I do think this funny money system could work, but not if banks are allowed to create money ... and I think they have outdone the Fed by creating 97% of the money .. M3? I don't know ... but Greenspan refused to regulate them.
Regulate/deregulate are vague and confusing ... we need the right regulation.
I vote for Ham for president ... nationalize it Ham ...
Down's back down below 10,000 again. I plan to just file my 401k and IRA statements without opening them for a while.
It sounds like the bailout isn't helping, and that more banks are expected to fail all over the nation and world over the next year or so. I'm thinking that doom and gloom will rule the day for a while.
God knows where all this is going to end up. I'm not terribly optimistic.
What gets lost in all the panic and carnage though, is that this debacle has been brewing - not for years - but for DECADES.
I think this is the result of the unbridled embracing of Milton Friedman, Arthur Laffer, "Trickle Down" Reaganomics. The wholesale abandonment of any sort of regulation, knee-jerk reactionary tax cuts as a matter of course- despite what the budget looks like, and an unshakeable faith in the divine ability of laissez-faire "free markets" to resolve any sort of economic issue have all led us down this road. We've sown the wind and now we're reaping the Whirlwind - what else did we expect?
Is anybody's plan going to lead us out of this morass anytime soon? I don't think so. My advice is - fasten your seatbelts, the road ahead is going to get REALLY bumpy for the foreseeable future...
Dow's back down below 10,000 again. I plan to just file my 401k and IRA statements without opening them for a while.
It sounds like the bailout isn't helping, and that more banks are expected to fail all over the nation and world over the next year or so. I'm thinking that doom and gloom will rule the day for a while.
We are seeing the result of bubble economics ... and yes, a lack of proper oversight.
I sure don't rejoice in people's 401k's being devalued, but much of those 10% yearly gains were unreal. But over the last ten years, a lot of real retirement money has been thrown to the snakes, and now we'll be taxed to cover their sins. I sure hope they track down the culprits and hang them, but I'm not very hopeful on that.
The last crisis I told a friend at Delta to sell her stock at 140, she didn't and it went to 5 or so. This time I know folks thinking of retirement with their money in company stock, that has now been cut in half. It is life changing for many people, even with fewer losses.
I feel better at getting out in early August '98, but even cash as been devalued and not completely safe. Maybe I'll invest in guns and ammo, but if you hold too much of those, the government takes them away.
The bailout may have helped, but it should have been called "the trying to avert an even worse fiasco bailout". And in the long run it may not help but hurt. But perhaps it keeps some people in jobs, if they can start to utilize some of the money.
I don't think the $700 billion is even in play yet, and a market correction was needed. "Success" might be a large correction and long slowdown, rather than an Argentina style collapse.
I'm just glad that I converted all my 401K to the money market option back in January (after taking about a 20% hit between July and December of last year). On retirement, I rolled over to an IRA. The fund manager wanted to move me to a more "aggressive" portfolio, but I said I'd wait until things even out a bit. My IRA isn't growing fast, but at least it's moving in the right direction! I have a few shares of Dow stock which are worth less than I paid, but it's not enough to be catastrophic.
I'm just glad that I converted all my 401K to the money market option back in January (after taking about a 20% hit between July and December of last year). On retirement, I rolled over to an IRA. The fund manager wanted to move me to a more "aggressive" portfolio, but I said I'd wait until things even out a bit. My IRA isn't growing fast, but at least it's moving in the right direction! I have a few shares of Dow stock which are worth less than I paid, but it's not enough to be catastrophic.
George
Well you're looking pretty darn smart right now George ... and with real estate prices lower maybe you can pick up a couple vacation homes on the "cheap".
9200 is the next support on the DOW, and we already bounced off that once today ... we sure got there fast. I hope this holds, but from the charts, 7600 looks like a real possibility.
If we charge back to 10K, it might be another chance to get out ... but that is always a tough call. Hope springs eternal. One guy is calling for a 21st century DOW theory end to the bear ... another considers 7286, the 2002 low, a possibility.
A lot of veteran traders have never seen this before ... glad your retirement funds are heading in the right direction.
On the other hand, the PROMISE of spending 700 BILLION obviously hasn't impressed Wall Street much!
George
The correction was probably needed first ... but they keep changing on where they will put the money. Will it go to Goldman buddies to float their bad banks? Or to support good banks when we get to a bottom? If changes are not made first, $700 billion will go down a rat hole, and the rats are in congress or own congress.
Some rules need to be fixed ... reform and regulation are not the same thing. Congress was bought with pork, not sure what we ended up with.
We've enriched some enemies that want to continue their war on us by trashing our markets ... I'm HOPING a real bottom could bet put in in the 7000's ... 7600 has been my number since 1998 ... give or take 800 ... HA.
Anyway, hopefully we catch the bad players that cheated and bought politicians ... and for the sake of the average American working person that saved, we/they don't just throw it all away.
Some feel this is the way the banks take over and one world government progresses. If that is the case, I hope they are kind overlords.
I'm betting on a 7600 bottom ... or I might bet ... no bets yet.
Europe is beyond me .. but there is some wild sheet going on ...
I'm glad I can grow some commodities ... sign up for my wine way corp ... you need $500/month sponsorship and a willingness to work hard in the vineyards ...
hmmm .. what else ... complete subservience? a sense of humor?
I need to recruit simon for the mechanical ... george st. george you are perfect as a vintner ... need a good chemist for that ... other george ... you can build anything ... turn the big barn into a gravity fed winery ... grapes in upstaris, wine out downstairs ...
To invest in my IPO just send $100K minimum up front ... or you can just show up if you have a large bulldozer and operator experience ...
Anyway .. you almost have to think about your life ... not the market ... I sold my window cleaning business for 3 months of revenue ... some of these corporations go for 20 years worth of earnings ... now some are close to a PE of 10, maybe going to 5. I'd rather just build my own business.
But really, investing in yourself is a good idea ...
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Bumpy
My Friends, I don't mean to interrupt you but this maybe worth noting? It's something which is possibly a long term bad news situation for lots of people in the credit market. The 3rd world is most effected first when billions of capital are wiped out!
God Bless You, Bump
I forgot the link...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/20185535
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rhino
What happens in the third world?
So another hedge fund in the poker game found no one was buying their bluff. But that doesn't effect us, except they are the same guys playing the housing market, and they are upside down on the 12 houses they are flipping. But the gov' will come to the rescue and introduce "liquidity", whatever that is ....
I wish I really understood all those cool terms :)
I can't see China trying to trash our market, as long as they are so dependent on it. Maybe we will just not accept their silly little certificates. If they are going to declare financial war, can't we just "cancel the debt"? How are they going to repossess? (that's what happens when you don't pay the exorcist ... you get repossessed :))
Anyway, time for beer
386 points ... yowser ...
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Bumpy
I sit here about 12 hours a day in front of all these screens of graphs, noise boxes and market information, trying to make some sense of it all? Honestly, I think it’s really nothing more than advanced casino gambling in the devil’s basement! But it sure can get exciting!! :)
I thought this guy had some interesting things to say about investing & what to do given the market turmoil we are watching?
http://biz.yahoo.com/hmoney/070807/080607_...eymag.html?.v=2
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Bumpy
Dear Friends,
The rain in Spain falls mainly on the plain. As for the markets, it may be time to start that 13,000 thread real soon! ....be happy, don’t worry! Love that song!
http://www.bloomberg.com/index.html?Intro=intro3
Back to the charts and the e-mails,
Bump
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Bumpy
Stairway to heaven baby...
http://www.bloomberg.com/index.html?Intro=intro3
...and sheee's buy...ying a stairway to heaven!
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rhino
Gee Bumpy, you didn't say it would happen all in one day ... what's next after 13,000?
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Bumpy
My problem is some banker’s hate to lose face! And I’ve got time for this kaka about 5 months a year. But, I get this kinda prophet like feeeeling, which is why they pay me! I can’t help it, but I feeeel when it’s about to hit. And then it does? What you’re watching is a fallout and it’s going to get worse, and this ain’t the thread to post it on. But if you can bail out and watch it in a foreign currency...da pain will feel like Tennessee rain!!
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rhino
Well that was a really good call ...
So people were giddy at 14,000 and we went to 10,900, where people are terrified of losing their life savings. The expression is "buy when there is blood in the streets"
But they do need to get these guys reined in, since they are using "the people's money" (investors I mean) and leveraging it 25 to 1. Even Fannie and Freddie were maxing out their credit cards which were cosigned by mama government (US).
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rhino
Just thought I'd bring this up again ... as Bumpy and I were talking of this derivative calamity over a year ago ...
I do think this funny money system could work, but not if banks are allowed to create money ... and I think they have outdone the Fed by creating 97% of the money .. M3? I don't know ... but Greenspan refused to regulate them.
Regulate/deregulate are vague and confusing ... we need the right regulation.
I vote for Ham for president ... nationalize it Ham ...
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Tom Strange
When we were in rez didn't veepee always claim that the country and the Dow would collapse if it ever went over 1,000 ???
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Mister P-Mosh
Down's back down below 10,000 again. I plan to just file my 401k and IRA statements without opening them for a while.
It sounds like the bailout isn't helping, and that more banks are expected to fail all over the nation and world over the next year or so. I'm thinking that doom and gloom will rule the day for a while.
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George Aar
God knows where all this is going to end up. I'm not terribly optimistic.
What gets lost in all the panic and carnage though, is that this debacle has been brewing - not for years - but for DECADES.
I think this is the result of the unbridled embracing of Milton Friedman, Arthur Laffer, "Trickle Down" Reaganomics. The wholesale abandonment of any sort of regulation, knee-jerk reactionary tax cuts as a matter of course- despite what the budget looks like, and an unshakeable faith in the divine ability of laissez-faire "free markets" to resolve any sort of economic issue have all led us down this road. We've sown the wind and now we're reaping the Whirlwind - what else did we expect?
Is anybody's plan going to lead us out of this morass anytime soon? I don't think so. My advice is - fasten your seatbelts, the road ahead is going to get REALLY bumpy for the foreseeable future...
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rhino
We are seeing the result of bubble economics ... and yes, a lack of proper oversight.
I sure don't rejoice in people's 401k's being devalued, but much of those 10% yearly gains were unreal. But over the last ten years, a lot of real retirement money has been thrown to the snakes, and now we'll be taxed to cover their sins. I sure hope they track down the culprits and hang them, but I'm not very hopeful on that.
The last crisis I told a friend at Delta to sell her stock at 140, she didn't and it went to 5 or so. This time I know folks thinking of retirement with their money in company stock, that has now been cut in half. It is life changing for many people, even with fewer losses.
I feel better at getting out in early August '98, but even cash as been devalued and not completely safe. Maybe I'll invest in guns and ammo, but if you hold too much of those, the government takes them away.
The bailout may have helped, but it should have been called "the trying to avert an even worse fiasco bailout". And in the long run it may not help but hurt. But perhaps it keeps some people in jobs, if they can start to utilize some of the money.
I don't think the $700 billion is even in play yet, and a market correction was needed. "Success" might be a large correction and long slowdown, rather than an Argentina style collapse.
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Ham
board acting "weird" today.. see post below..
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Ham
I wonder how low the dow will sink before someone declares martial law..
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GeorgeStGeorge
I'm just glad that I converted all my 401K to the money market option back in January (after taking about a 20% hit between July and December of last year). On retirement, I rolled over to an IRA. The fund manager wanted to move me to a more "aggressive" portfolio, but I said I'd wait until things even out a bit. My IRA isn't growing fast, but at least it's moving in the right direction! I have a few shares of Dow stock which are worth less than I paid, but it's not enough to be catastrophic.
George
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rhino
Well you're looking pretty darn smart right now George ... and with real estate prices lower maybe you can pick up a couple vacation homes on the "cheap".
9200 is the next support on the DOW, and we already bounced off that once today ... we sure got there fast. I hope this holds, but from the charts, 7600 looks like a real possibility.
If we charge back to 10K, it might be another chance to get out ... but that is always a tough call. Hope springs eternal. One guy is calling for a 21st century DOW theory end to the bear ... another considers 7286, the 2002 low, a possibility.
A lot of veteran traders have never seen this before ... glad your retirement funds are heading in the right direction.
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George Aar
Dow hits 8000! How's your 401K?
Boy, that 700 BILLION was sure money well-spent, huh?
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GeorgeStGeorge
It hasn't been spent yet.
On the other hand, the PROMISE of spending 700 BILLION obviously hasn't impressed Wall Street much!
George
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rhino
The correction was probably needed first ... but they keep changing on where they will put the money. Will it go to Goldman buddies to float their bad banks? Or to support good banks when we get to a bottom? If changes are not made first, $700 billion will go down a rat hole, and the rats are in congress or own congress.
Some rules need to be fixed ... reform and regulation are not the same thing. Congress was bought with pork, not sure what we ended up with.
We've enriched some enemies that want to continue their war on us by trashing our markets ... I'm HOPING a real bottom could bet put in in the 7000's ... 7600 has been my number since 1998 ... give or take 800 ... HA.
Anyway, hopefully we catch the bad players that cheated and bought politicians ... and for the sake of the average American working person that saved, we/they don't just throw it all away.
Some feel this is the way the banks take over and one world government progresses. If that is the case, I hope they are kind overlords.
I'm betting on a 7600 bottom ... or I might bet ... no bets yet.
Europe is beyond me .. but there is some wild sheet going on ...
I'm glad I can grow some commodities ... sign up for my wine way corp ... you need $500/month sponsorship and a willingness to work hard in the vineyards ...
hmmm .. what else ... complete subservience? a sense of humor?
I need to recruit simon for the mechanical ... george st. george you are perfect as a vintner ... need a good chemist for that ... other george ... you can build anything ... turn the big barn into a gravity fed winery ... grapes in upstaris, wine out downstairs ...
To invest in my IPO just send $100K minimum up front ... or you can just show up if you have a large bulldozer and operator experience ...
Anyway .. you almost have to think about your life ... not the market ... I sold my window cleaning business for 3 months of revenue ... some of these corporations go for 20 years worth of earnings ... now some are close to a PE of 10, maybe going to 5. I'd rather just build my own business.
But really, investing in yourself is a good idea ...
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