Exciting times in the Market. Hope your 401K is up. Two Thirds of the American workforce is invested in the market via their 401K or 403B so I would hope things are up for ya. The market is up 30% in the last 12 months.
Please don't turn this into a political assasination thread. I've been a faithful subscriber to Bob Brinkers Markettimer newsletter for 20 years and have nothing but the highest regard for his investment recommondations. Some are predicting a 15000 DOW by the end of 2007. With two kids in college..that would be a blessing.
Right! And what goes up comes down! So hang onto your hat. The deficit fundamentals and sub-primes of 50 billion may put holes in your college plans! <_<
and if frogs had wings they wouldn't hit their a$$ on the lillypads. Actually the market has gone up over it's history with many peaks and valleys along the way. The market should be used as a long term investment not a get rich quick tool. If your well diversified with your investments..mutual funds..you'll be fine in the Long Run ..
and if frogs had wings they wouldn't hit their a$$ on the lillypads. Actually the market has gone up over it's history with many peaks and valleys along the way. The market should be used as a long term investment not a get rich quick tool. If your well diversified with your investments..mutual funds..you'll be fine in the Long Run ..
No argument there, and you can leave the dumb frogs out of the equasion! I've been watching the tape as a kid...
I don't speak as an expert or wealthy person ... :) but my view has changed on whether the stock market remains a solid long term investment. Probably, but there is risk. Some "twigee" got me doing the IRA thing back in 1980, and just that and a little extra did well through 1998. But that was a real long bull market, which is still going on, depending how you look at it.
What maybe makes things different is the incredible leverage in some of the derivative markets, which I don't pretend to really understand. Also the way the government allows so much money out there ... something about M1 M2 M3 ... :) Then you have huge foreign markets that seem comingled almost seamlessly ...
That said, I'd be a lot wealthier if I had just listened to Bob Brinker instead of trying to figure it all out. I was a "genius" for getting out early in '98, but too leary to get back in when others were rejoining "the party". So what is Bob saying now?
And millions of Gurus supporting any argument you wish to prove.
Do you keep your feet in cement for 50 years and follow the market’s “historic trend” and disregard inflation along the way...?
Or look at a situation where the market is at record highs and it might be time to take some $$ off the table?
My worry...Deficit Spending, US $$ Currency Valuations vis a vis no future appetite for buying/financing US debt, Big Time unreported loan housing fallout/supply on the horizon, unending wars draining the economy with Iran coming on-line, a possible shift out of dollar dominated oil trades (e.g. Iran/Japan), oil prices continuing to rise, a major Japanese earthquake or some other disaster where a run on treasuries causes a currency collapse, total lack of oversight in the derivatives market...& maybe just the on-going US trade deficit.
The entertainment value is endless & nobody really knows anything.
So when do you sell?, if yesterday, we were at historic highs in a Bush administration? And on the sidelines sits another group of political idiots waiting to take over the White House in a few months time.
Just Remember, “Pigs Get Fat, Hogs Get Slaughtered”! 1929 was frenzy out of control and maybe, just maybe...so it goes today! <_<
I noticed the market is down 160 points today. Seems like a lot of investors are taking some profits like me. My grandfather invested, my Dad invested, I guess I am sold on it.
When the Market fell in March of 2000 I was invested heavily in Tech Stock mutual funds. I lost over half my investment value. Bob Brinker called for a sell order on all stock market investments in January 2000. Wrote a letter to all Markettimer subscribers to sell and go to Money Market funds. The one time I didn't follow his recommondation I get clobbered. March 2000 was a killer. I moved all my investment to Money Market in April 2000 . When he gave the buy order in March of 2003 I went back to a fully stock market invested position. I have gained all my loses back and then some.
The good thing about Bob is he's not a politician.
401K, 403B, Traditional IRA's as well as SEP IRA's can't be touched without penalty until your 65. Your can move your investments around within your retirement accounts sell your stock funds and put proceeds into Money markets within your accounts but you can not take any dollars out for personal use until your 65. If you start saving in these retirement plans when your young and stay in them continuing to contribute every year until you retire (maybe 40 years) you will be happy. Show me any 40 year period of time during the US Stock market history where you would have lost?
I noticed the market is down 160 points today. Seems like a lot of investors are taking some profits like me. My grandfather invested, my Dad invested, I guess I am sold on it.
When the Market fell in March of 2000 I was invested heavily in Tech Stock mutual funds. I lost over half my investment value. Bob Brinker called for a sell order on all stock market investments in January 2000. Wrote a letter to all Markettimer subscribers to sell and go to Money Market funds. The one time I didn't follow his recommondation I get clobbered. March 2000 was a killer. I moved all my investment to Money Market in April 2000 . When he gave the buy order in March of 2003 I went back to a fully stock market invested position. I have gained all my loses back and then some.
The good thing about Bob is he's not a politician.
401K, 403B, Traditional IRA's as well as SEP IRA's can't be touched without penalty until your 65. Your can move your investments around within your retirement accounts sell your stock funds and put proceeds into Money markets within your accounts but you can not take any dollars out for personal use until your 65. If you start saving in these retirement plans when your young and stay in them continuing to contribute every year until you retire (maybe 40 years) you will be happy. Show me any 40 year period of time during the US Stock market history where you would have lost?
No one is going to argue "diversification", or Dad, Grand Dad or whether Bob is a politician. He's just another guru who predicted the dot bomb bubble and got it right. Everyone else lost! But that's not the point. My feet don't want to sit in cement for 40 years to play it safe until I retire...Besides, you're LOCKED IN no matter how you allocate and if you need the $$$ you pay a big withdrawl penalty.
'My feet don't want to sit in cement for 40 years to play it safe until I retire...Besides, you're LOCKED IN no matter how you allocate and if you need the $$$ you pay a big withdrawl penalty.'
_________________---
Nobody is argueing unless you are? You have every right to keep your feet out of the cement.
You seem to want to look at the future in terms of what may happen negatively..thats OK ..for you
I on the other hand want to look at the future in terms of the historical results in a positive way. What I give to my IRa or 401K is just another bill to me. I don't plan on touching it till I retire.
The divorce rate is now at 50% for all marriages.
Some would say ..I won't get married because it has a 50% chance at failure.
I'd risk it and say I have a 50% chance for it to succeed. If it didn't I'd shoot the bitchh...
It's your $$$, the glass can be half full. For me it's flexibility. But if market conditions change, I think you want to be free to change as well, no?
Anyway, individual investors will always feel the pain first. Better not to watch your positions too closely.
I'm sticking with it. I look at this as a healthy correction. I still believe the market will move to the 15000 range by the end of the year. Historically, you cannot disput the markets ability to move forward . Guys, we live in America...if you chose to invest as I do ..great..if you don't ..great. If you chose to bury your talons ...great. You put your talons where you wish..I'll do the same. The idea is to get gains from your talons ..right?
Also ..please post your remarks here and stop e-mailing me your comments. I respect your concern but I am pretty comfortable in my strategy. I really didn't start this thread out of fear. Really ...I view this time with a positive economic outlook..I'm comfortable with the Feds Monetary Policy and because my current stock market investments are long term..I'm willing to ride the bumpy road ahead if that's where the market goes.
If I was really really concerned, I would not trust any financial institution ... I just think the risks are greater than most think. ( a real correction would be more like 5-10% from here) It does seem wise to consider options though ... some say you don't lose unless you sell ... I'd say once you pay your money, you are in till you sell, so there should be some rules on when you will get out. If you are willing to lose half, or all, that is fine. Just have a plan.
The dollar looks jittery ... I'm not sure what happens if oil gets traded in Euro's, or if the American dollar is not the world's currency ... Bumpy is really George Soros (isn't he in France?)... he may have the answers ... :)
If I was really really concerned, I would not trust any financial institution ... I just think the risks are greater than most think. ( a real correction would be more like 5-10% from here) It does seem wise to consider options though ... some say you don't lose unless you sell ... I'd say once you pay your money, you are in till you sell, so there should be some rules on when you will get out. If you are willing to lose half, or all, that is fine. Just have a plan.
The dollar looks jittery ... I'm not sure what happens if oil gets traded in Euro's, or if the American dollar is not the world's currency ... Bumpy is really George Soros (isn't he in France?)... he may have the answers ... :)
Mr. Schwartz was another one of those "fellows" from the old country who changed his name upon arrival.
Some consider his business past to be... how would you say, "just a little questionable"!
Bumpy has fixed no answers to picking stocks or playing the market...except if you buy my book!
I'm sticking with it. I look at this as a healthy correction. I still believe the market will move to the 15000 range by the end of the year. Historically, you cannot disput the markets ability to move forward . Guys, we live in America...if you chose to invest as I do ..great..if you don't ..great. If you chose to bury your talons ...great. You put your talons where you wish..I'll do the same. The idea is to get gains from your talons ..right?
Also ..please post your remarks here and stop e-mailing me your comments. I respect your concern but I am pretty comfortable in my strategy. I really didn't start this thread out of fear. Really ...I view this time with a positive economic outlook..I'm comfortable with the Feds Monetary Policy and because my current stock market investments are long term..I'm willing to ride the bumpy road ahead if that's where the market goes.
“I still believe the market will move to the 15,000 range by the end of the year”.
Mr. Hills Bro, a little wager of Euros 1000 says your street prophesy of the market reaching 15000 by the end of the year, proves NOT to be true!
As I stated in my previous post do what you feel in your gut. I've made my choice based on historical common sense. The chart below speaks for itself. You have every right to follow the doom and gloomers and/or politicians that are clueless when it comes to fiscal responsibility whether Democrat or Republican. Whether its a stock, mutual fund ,bond, or income property I really don't care what Hillary, GW, Rocco, or Rudy has to say. I make my choice based on my investigations and personal advisors and historicle evidence.
This has been my vacation week. Next week ..back to work...Must say it was fun strolling around G-spot this past week. Hope you all achieve your goals...just win baby!!!
Little personal advice..go with your gut.
Do we have a deal?
For bets/wagers please consult Michael Vick in Atlanta doggonit ...Thank you.
I don't think the market is going to fall 50 to 100%, I was just saying it is good to plan when you would get out. How much pain can you take? There were a lot of smart guys that went bust doing the dot com boom. Of course they were shorting stocks or heavily leveraged. But there are some different concerns now than before ... hopefully it all works out.
Debt is one cause for concern. Some solid minded citizens even refinance their homes so they can put the money in the stock market where they assume they'll average 8 to 15%, and only pay 6% on their loan. That is genius as long as they are right.
And this article may be of interest to some ... in a global economy it seems, cheap labor is found elsewhere, and intellectual property is sent by broadband to Kolkatta. In the mean time, we have become a huge debtor nation, counting on our GDP continuing to grow ...
We can all rejoice as poor and middle income countries are brought up to Western levels of affluence, but our rejoicing will presumably be sharply diminished if we come to realize that much of their gains may be at the expense of our children's living standards.
It does seem the new global economy and huge debt might make a difference, but maybe Caterpillar & GE have that all figured out. I'm not smart enough to know. But it is fun to chat about.. no gloom and doom here. :)
... It does seem wise to consider options though ... some say you don't lose unless you sell ... I'd say once you pay your money, you are in till you sell, so there should be some rules on when you will get out. If you are willing to lose half, or all, that is fine. Just have a plan.
....
I wouldn't recommend option investing for the novice investor based on the fact options are a decaying asset. Options expire the 3rd Friday of every month so you are out the price you paid for the option if you don't buy or sell (redeem) the option before it's expiration date. Of course, one can buy options that have 2-3 years to expiration, but then, one pays a hefty premium for those type of options. The closer you are to the expiration date, the less valuable the option becomes. By implementing good technical analysis from following the chart of the type of security you hold will indicate to you when one should redeem the option.
Being a stock trader I don't subscribe to the "buy and hold" strategy - especially with options. A professional trader won't (they shouldn't) commit more than 2% of their stock portfolio to options investing anyway. That is why being diversifed to me means something entirely different than what it does for most people. For most people, being "diversified" simply means having your money invested in many different stocks in different industry groups. However, what most salespeople from most investing firms won't tell you is this - that is: buying and holding and being diversified is an extremely weak investment strategy unless one knows beforehand they are putting their investement dollars into fundamentally sound stocks inside industry groups that are starting to rotate into favor due to heavy institutional investing.
Don't misunderstand, because that is not really a bad investment strategy if one is putting their investment $$ into fundamentally sound stocks to begin with and they are subscribing to services that provide them with this type of financial data. But most people that you hear about who end up losing their investment leave this activity up to those "financial guru's" (the salespeople of the investing firm) rather than take this education upon themselves. Their reasoning is it is too costly and/or time consuming for them to do so. Of course, that is what those salespeole want you to believe it is - because it works in their favor not yours. That is primarily the biggest reason why most people end up losing their investment.
I wouldn't recommend option investing for the novice investor based on the fact options are a decaying asset. .
I just meant "consider your options", not trade in options. I've never traded options, though I did sell 900 bushels of corn when it was up 80 cents from now :) Hopefully I can deliver another 1500 on top of that come October. I may try some corn options next year as protection if I sell in advance. I guess puts are options ... it's all kinda blurry to me ... my current options ... beer or wine
I don’t think Rhino was referring to this in his posting, the option market? Most people managing their portfolios are small time investors, whose only hope in making any return, is to buy and hold. They are not in the business of trading options, hedge fund investments or other derivatives. (Most can’t read a P&L, much less figure out the P/E, and many fall in love with their stocks anyway.) So I think we can toss out that part of the conversation?
Secondly, I think a “professional” trader will do whatever his client requests, right?
Your statement “unless one knows beforehand they are putting their investment dollars...” well come on, what are they going to do, the opposite?? “Starting to rotate...”, by that time the easy money is already off the table. What does starting to rotate mean anyway...you’re being roasted?
Your third paragraph doesn’t make any sense to me. Are you investing in garbage or in “fundamentally sound stocks to begin with...”? Buy a dart board, or short the market with a used car salesman? What’s your point?
I think Rhino had a point, and it’s real simple...”Have a Plan” or at least an exit strategy which is the same thing. And follow the K.I.S.S. business investment principles of smart investing. Or just stay out of the market.
PS. Anyone with a computer and a password is a “trader”, right? (Until his nuts are roasted!)
hedge? did someone say hedge? ...remember the S&L collapse? ...what's coming up will make that look like a tea party ...lots of business for the bankruptcy lawyers coming up...
hedge? did someone say hedge? ...remember the S&L collapse? ...what's coming up will make that look like a tea party ...lots of business for the bankruptcy lawyers coming up...
Aaaaah com'on, don't be negativo, who needs immigration control, we just need more lawyers...Nobody's "gaming the system", all those wall street guys in fancy clothes living on Nantucket, earn their money the good ol' fashion way!
And besides, all that S&L stuff was a long time ago, no one remembers that!
hey ... it's all gambling, and the government is going to take half the winnings ...
but with the lottery they take half twice :unsure:
I remember a trader, when the market opened saying "the casino is open"
of course now they trade around the clock ... get your forex account here ... pay for that new condo in a week of evening trading ...
It is exciting, but the players become million or billionaires (or just go bankrupt again) while regulars working stiffs remain wage slaves ... kinda s ucks ...
I just played on the edge a little, life is good with a few acres of corn and some grapes for wine. That's all I need .. ad this chair ... :)
Recommended Posts
Top Posters In This Topic
7
18
5
28
Popular Days
Jul 25
14
Jul 20
10
Jul 26
10
Oct 6
6
Top Posters In This Topic
Hills Bro 7 posts
rhino 18 posts
What The Hey 5 posts
Bumpy 28 posts
Popular Days
Jul 25 2007
14 posts
Jul 20 2007
10 posts
Jul 26 2007
10 posts
Oct 6 2008
6 posts
Bumpy
Right! And what goes up comes down! So hang onto your hat. The deficit fundamentals and sub-primes of 50 billion may put holes in your college plans! <_<
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hills Bro
and if frogs had wings they wouldn't hit their a$$ on the lillypads. Actually the market has gone up over it's history with many peaks and valleys along the way. The market should be used as a long term investment not a get rich quick tool. If your well diversified with your investments..mutual funds..you'll be fine in the Long Run ..
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bumpy
No argument there, and you can leave the dumb frogs out of the equasion! I've been watching the tape as a kid...
Link to comment
Share on other sites
rhino
I don't speak as an expert or wealthy person ... :) but my view has changed on whether the stock market remains a solid long term investment. Probably, but there is risk. Some "twigee" got me doing the IRA thing back in 1980, and just that and a little extra did well through 1998. But that was a real long bull market, which is still going on, depending how you look at it.
What maybe makes things different is the incredible leverage in some of the derivative markets, which I don't pretend to really understand. Also the way the government allows so much money out there ... something about M1 M2 M3 ... :) Then you have huge foreign markets that seem comingled almost seamlessly ...
That said, I'd be a lot wealthier if I had just listened to Bob Brinker instead of trying to figure it all out. I was a "genius" for getting out early in '98, but too leary to get back in when others were rejoining "the party". So what is Bob saying now?
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bumpy
There are two sides to every coin as seen below:
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/for...on=money_latest
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aMtV.07BfeXg
And millions of Gurus supporting any argument you wish to prove.
Do you keep your feet in cement for 50 years and follow the market’s “historic trend” and disregard inflation along the way...?
Or look at a situation where the market is at record highs and it might be time to take some $$ off the table?
My worry...Deficit Spending, US $$ Currency Valuations vis a vis no future appetite for buying/financing US debt, Big Time unreported loan housing fallout/supply on the horizon, unending wars draining the economy with Iran coming on-line, a possible shift out of dollar dominated oil trades (e.g. Iran/Japan), oil prices continuing to rise, a major Japanese earthquake or some other disaster where a run on treasuries causes a currency collapse, total lack of oversight in the derivatives market...& maybe just the on-going US trade deficit.
The entertainment value is endless & nobody really knows anything.
So when do you sell?, if yesterday, we were at historic highs in a Bush administration? And on the sidelines sits another group of political idiots waiting to take over the White House in a few months time.
Just Remember, “Pigs Get Fat, Hogs Get Slaughtered”! 1929 was frenzy out of control and maybe, just maybe...so it goes today! <_<
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hills Bro
I'm sticking with it. Diversification is the key.
I noticed the market is down 160 points today. Seems like a lot of investors are taking some profits like me. My grandfather invested, my Dad invested, I guess I am sold on it.
When the Market fell in March of 2000 I was invested heavily in Tech Stock mutual funds. I lost over half my investment value. Bob Brinker called for a sell order on all stock market investments in January 2000. Wrote a letter to all Markettimer subscribers to sell and go to Money Market funds. The one time I didn't follow his recommondation I get clobbered. March 2000 was a killer. I moved all my investment to Money Market in April 2000 . When he gave the buy order in March of 2003 I went back to a fully stock market invested position. I have gained all my loses back and then some.
The good thing about Bob is he's not a politician.
401K, 403B, Traditional IRA's as well as SEP IRA's can't be touched without penalty until your 65. Your can move your investments around within your retirement accounts sell your stock funds and put proceeds into Money markets within your accounts but you can not take any dollars out for personal use until your 65. If you start saving in these retirement plans when your young and stay in them continuing to contribute every year until you retire (maybe 40 years) you will be happy. Show me any 40 year period of time during the US Stock market history where you would have lost?
Edited by Hills BroLink to comment
Share on other sites
Bumpy
No one is going to argue "diversification", or Dad, Grand Dad or whether Bob is a politician. He's just another guru who predicted the dot bomb bubble and got it right. Everyone else lost! But that's not the point. My feet don't want to sit in cement for 40 years to play it safe until I retire...Besides, you're LOCKED IN no matter how you allocate and if you need the $$$ you pay a big withdrawl penalty.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hills Bro
'My feet don't want to sit in cement for 40 years to play it safe until I retire...Besides, you're LOCKED IN no matter how you allocate and if you need the $$$ you pay a big withdrawl penalty.'
_________________---
Nobody is argueing unless you are? You have every right to keep your feet out of the cement.
You seem to want to look at the future in terms of what may happen negatively..thats OK ..for you
I on the other hand want to look at the future in terms of the historical results in a positive way. What I give to my IRa or 401K is just another bill to me. I don't plan on touching it till I retire.
The divorce rate is now at 50% for all marriages.
Some would say ..I won't get married because it has a 50% chance at failure.
I'd risk it and say I have a 50% chance for it to succeed. If it didn't I'd shoot the bitchh...
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bumpy
It's your $$$, the glass can be half full. For me it's flexibility. But if market conditions change, I think you want to be free to change as well, no?
Anyway, individual investors will always feel the pain first. Better not to watch your positions too closely.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bumpy
Predictions can be as foolish as history, hindsight is always 20/20 but our eyes may not have wanted “to see” those who stole our future.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/amer...dist=TNMostRead
This may be another “learning curve” coming up but in the wrong direction. They may soon be sweeping the American tourists off the streets of Europe.
Bon Voyage!
Link to comment
Share on other sites
rhino
So Bumpy, if we want to visit your tourist mecca, maybe we should pay in advance? If we are using those funny money american dollars I mean. ... :)
There may be a blow off top, DOW 16,000 ... then the end ... gather your nuts ... can I pay in bottles of wine?
But that is just the conspiracy angle ... just invest and hold ... all is hell well ...
I don't know ... maybe those Tracker skills will come in handy one day ... or maybe I should invest in a better rifle and ammo ...
I guess we are looking at the market down 2% today ... or are we talking about the tragedy of Lindsay Lohan?
Edited by rhinoLink to comment
Share on other sites
Hills Bro
I'm sticking with it. I look at this as a healthy correction. I still believe the market will move to the 15000 range by the end of the year. Historically, you cannot disput the markets ability to move forward . Guys, we live in America...if you chose to invest as I do ..great..if you don't ..great. If you chose to bury your talons ...great. You put your talons where you wish..I'll do the same. The idea is to get gains from your talons ..right?
Also ..please post your remarks here and stop e-mailing me your comments. I respect your concern but I am pretty comfortable in my strategy. I really didn't start this thread out of fear. Really ...I view this time with a positive economic outlook..I'm comfortable with the Feds Monetary Policy and because my current stock market investments are long term..I'm willing to ride the bumpy road ahead if that's where the market goes.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
rhino
If I was really really concerned, I would not trust any financial institution ... I just think the risks are greater than most think. ( a real correction would be more like 5-10% from here) It does seem wise to consider options though ... some say you don't lose unless you sell ... I'd say once you pay your money, you are in till you sell, so there should be some rules on when you will get out. If you are willing to lose half, or all, that is fine. Just have a plan.
The dollar looks jittery ... I'm not sure what happens if oil gets traded in Euro's, or if the American dollar is not the world's currency ... Bumpy is really George Soros (isn't he in France?)... he may have the answers ... :)
Edited by rhinoLink to comment
Share on other sites
Bumpy
Mr. Schwartz was another one of those "fellows" from the old country who changed his name upon arrival.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Soros
Some consider his business past to be... how would you say, "just a little questionable"!
Bumpy has fixed no answers to picking stocks or playing the market...except if you buy my book!
“I still believe the market will move to the 15,000 range by the end of the year”.
Mr. Hills Bro, a little wager of Euros 1000 says your street prophesy of the market reaching 15000 by the end of the year, proves NOT to be true!
Do we have a deal?
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hills Bro
As I stated in my previous post do what you feel in your gut. I've made my choice based on historical common sense. The chart below speaks for itself. You have every right to follow the doom and gloomers and/or politicians that are clueless when it comes to fiscal responsibility whether Democrat or Republican. Whether its a stock, mutual fund ,bond, or income property I really don't care what Hillary, GW, Rocco, or Rudy has to say. I make my choice based on my investigations and personal advisors and historicle evidence.
This has been my vacation week. Next week ..back to work...Must say it was fun strolling around G-spot this past week. Hope you all achieve your goals...just win baby!!!
Little personal advice..go with your gut.
Do we have a deal?
For bets/wagers please consult Michael Vick in Atlanta doggonit
...Thank you.
Edited by Hills BroLink to comment
Share on other sites
Bumpy
“Little personal advice”...Your guts seem to be a little soft when it comes to $$$.
We all know the value of “talk”, not to mention “free advice”!
Better to keep it to yourself. <_<
Link to comment
Share on other sites
rhino
I don't think the market is going to fall 50 to 100%, I was just saying it is good to plan when you would get out. How much pain can you take? There were a lot of smart guys that went bust doing the dot com boom. Of course they were shorting stocks or heavily leveraged. But there are some different concerns now than before ... hopefully it all works out.
Debt is one cause for concern. Some solid minded citizens even refinance their homes so they can put the money in the stock market where they assume they'll average 8 to 15%, and only pay 6% on their loan. That is genius as long as they are right.
And this article may be of interest to some ... in a global economy it seems, cheap labor is found elsewhere, and intellectual property is sent by broadband to Kolkatta. In the mean time, we have become a huge debtor nation, counting on our GDP continuing to grow ...
It does seem the new global economy and huge debt might make a difference, but maybe Caterpillar & GE have that all figured out. I'm not smart enough to know. But it is fun to chat about.. no gloom and doom here. :)
Link to comment
Share on other sites
What The Hey
I wouldn't recommend option investing for the novice investor based on the fact options are a decaying asset. Options expire the 3rd Friday of every month so you are out the price you paid for the option if you don't buy or sell (redeem) the option before it's expiration date. Of course, one can buy options that have 2-3 years to expiration, but then, one pays a hefty premium for those type of options. The closer you are to the expiration date, the less valuable the option becomes. By implementing good technical analysis from following the chart of the type of security you hold will indicate to you when one should redeem the option.
Being a stock trader I don't subscribe to the "buy and hold" strategy - especially with options. A professional trader won't (they shouldn't) commit more than 2% of their stock portfolio to options investing anyway. That is why being diversifed to me means something entirely different than what it does for most people. For most people, being "diversified" simply means having your money invested in many different stocks in different industry groups. However, what most salespeople from most investing firms won't tell you is this - that is: buying and holding and being diversified is an extremely weak investment strategy unless one knows beforehand they are putting their investement dollars into fundamentally sound stocks inside industry groups that are starting to rotate into favor due to heavy institutional investing.
Don't misunderstand, because that is not really a bad investment strategy if one is putting their investment $$ into fundamentally sound stocks to begin with and they are subscribing to services that provide them with this type of financial data. But most people that you hear about who end up losing their investment leave this activity up to those "financial guru's" (the salespeople of the investing firm) rather than take this education upon themselves. Their reasoning is it is too costly and/or time consuming for them to do so. Of course, that is what those salespeole want you to believe it is - because it works in their favor not yours. That is primarily the biggest reason why most people end up losing their investment.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
rhino
I just meant "consider your options", not trade in options.
I've never traded options, though I did sell 900 bushels of corn when it was up 80 cents from now :) Hopefully I can deliver another 1500 on top of that come October. I may try some corn options next year as protection if I sell in advance. I guess puts are options ... it's all kinda blurry to me ... my current options ... beer or wine 
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bumpy
“Option Heaven”! Oh Lord help me!
I don’t think Rhino was referring to this in his posting, the option market? Most people managing their portfolios are small time investors, whose only hope in making any return, is to buy and hold. They are not in the business of trading options, hedge fund investments or other derivatives. (Most can’t read a P&L, much less figure out the P/E, and many fall in love with their stocks anyway.) So I think we can toss out that part of the conversation?
Secondly, I think a “professional” trader will do whatever his client requests, right?
Your statement “unless one knows beforehand they are putting their investment dollars...” well come on, what are they going to do, the opposite?? “Starting to rotate...”, by that time the easy money is already off the table. What does starting to rotate mean anyway...you’re being roasted?
Your third paragraph doesn’t make any sense to me. Are you investing in garbage or in “fundamentally sound stocks to begin with...”? Buy a dart board, or short the market with a used car salesman? What’s your point?
I think Rhino had a point, and it’s real simple...”Have a Plan” or at least an exit strategy which is the same thing. And follow the K.I.S.S. business investment principles of smart investing. Or just stay out of the market.
PS. Anyone with a computer and a password is a “trader”, right? (Until his nuts are roasted!)
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tom Strange
hedge? did someone say hedge? ...remember the S&L collapse? ...what's coming up will make that look like a tea party ...lots of business for the bankruptcy lawyers coming up...
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bumpy
Aaaaah com'on, don't be negativo, who needs immigration control, we just need more lawyers...Nobody's "gaming the system", all those wall street guys in fancy clothes living on Nantucket, earn their money the good ol' fashion way!
And besides, all that S&L stuff was a long time ago, no one remembers that!
Psssst, I have a real good tip for you!
Link to comment
Share on other sites
rhino
One word ... plastics powerball
hey ... it's all gambling, and the government is going to take half the winnings ...
but with the lottery they take half twice :unsure:
I remember a trader, when the market opened saying "the casino is open"
of course now they trade around the clock ... get your forex account here ... pay for that new condo in a week of evening trading ...
It is exciting, but the players become million or billionaires (or just go bankrupt again) while regulars working stiffs remain wage slaves ... kinda s ucks ...
I just played on the edge a little, life is good with a few acres of corn and some grapes for wine. That's all I need .. ad this chair ... :)
How are you hedging, Tom?
Edited by rhinoLink to comment
Share on other sites
excathedra
i'm believing
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.