But will it turn into Alberto

[markomalley]

000

AXNT20 KNHC 091703

TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

205 PM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL

AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN

SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE

AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION

IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...

AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. A SLIGHT

INVERTED V-PATTERN IS EVIDENT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE

ITCZ...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT AS WELL-DEFINED AS YESTERDAY. THIS

WAVE HAS FAIR CURVATURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THERE ARE NO AREAS

OF DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED. GFS HAS THE WAVE

SOMEWHAT INITIALIZED AND CARRIES IT QUICKLY WWARD AS A FAIRLY

WEAK FEATURE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS

MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO

LOCATE. LITTLE...IF ANY WAVE SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE

IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AND IS

DISCUSSED IN THAT SECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W S OF 12N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS

INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND HAS BECOME VERY CHALLENGING TO

TRACK OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. NO WAVE SIGNATURE IS EVIDENT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W S OF 13N MOVING W 10 KT. THE

SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE IS ACROSS THE EPAC AND CUTS

ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS

ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. THIS

WAVE HAS SOME SIGNATURE ESPECIALLY S OF PANAMA.

ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N23W 5N40W 6N54W. CLUSTERS OF

MODERATE CONVECTION LIES FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 15W-19W. SCATTERED

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE

AXIS W OF 34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF

AFRICA E OF 4W N OF 1N TO INLAND OVER AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF

OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED TO THE NE NOW COVERING ONLY THE

NE SECTOR. UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER

S MEXICO NWARD TO TEXAS. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING EWARD INTO

THE W GULF. ESSENTIALLY...THIS UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN IS

GENERATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF OF

MEXICO. AT THE SFC...A WEAK DISSIPATING TROUGH LIES FROM LAKE

OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA SWWARD TO 24N87W. THIS TROUGH IS MARKED BY A

NARROW THIN BAND OF CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH

IS CENTERED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W. MAINLY FAIR AND DRY

WEATHER EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS. THE DRY

WEATHER IN THE REGION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS MAY COME TO AN END

FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF THIS WEEKEND AS A SLOWLY DEVELOPING

SYSTEM IN THE NW CARIBBEAN MOVES NWARD DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE

INTO THE E/CENTRAL GULF. THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO THE FIRST

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON IN THE NEXT DAY OR

TWO.

(Remainder snipped)

[Raf]

That's not a cone....

Now that's a cone.

[moony3424]

This is a cone

[Lifted Up]

Alberto it is now, officially.

[Lifted Up]

By the way, Alberto is expected to strengthen at most slightly over its current minimal tropical storm strength. Too much southwesterly upper wind shear is forecast to keep displacing the convection (showers and thunderstorms) away from the center, preventing those storms from grouping near the center, therefore preventing Alberto from getting a lot stronger. Shear is usually helpful for small individual severe stormsto grow and strengthen, but tropical storms exist and grow on a much larger scale, and strong shear can rip them apart...or at least keep them from getting much stronger.

If anyone cares that is (maybe not).

Edited June 11, 2006 by Lifted Up

[Raf]

Thanks for the update from a real weatherperson! :)